Will average gas prices go above $4.25 by Sep 30, 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $4.30
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Above $4.35
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
20 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will average gas prices go above $4
Will average gas prices go above $4.30 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.30
KXAAAGASMAXM-26SEP30-4.30
Will average gas prices go above $4.35 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.35
KXAAAGASMAXM-26SEP30-4.35
Will average gas prices go above $4.60 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.60
KXAAAGASMAXM-26SEP30-4.60
Will average gas prices go above $4.55 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.55
KXAAAGASMAXM-26SEP30-4.55
Will average gas prices go above $4.40 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.40
KXAAAGASMAXM-26SEP30-4.40
Will average gas prices go above $4.50 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.50
KXAAAGASMAXM-26SEP30-4.50
Will average gas prices go above $4.45 by Sep 30, 2026?: Above $4.45
KXAAAGASMAXM-26SEP30-4.45
Analysis
This market reflects a 60% probability that the U.S. average gasoline price will exceed $4.20 per gallon by September 30, 2026—roughly 4 weeks away. The current price trajectory and crude oil futures are the primary drivers: prices would need to rise about 5-10% from typical late summer levels to reach this threshold, which depends on global oil supply, refinery capacity utilization, and seasonal demand patterns as summer driving season winds down. The most immediate catalyst is weekly EIA petroleum inventory reports and any geopolitical disruptions to crude supply; additionally, hurricane season activity could affect Gulf Coast refining capacity through early October. The contract ladder (ranging from $4.20 to $4.40) shows markets treating prices in the $4.20–$4.30 range as reasonably probable but not highly likely.
- ›Current U.S. average gas price relative to the $4.20 threshold as of early September 2026, with typical late-summer pricing patterns
- ›WTI crude futures contract prices and global supply/demand fundamentals, particularly OPEC production decisions and geopolitical risk
- ›U.S. refinery utilization rates and any unplanned outages that would tighten supply in the final four weeks of September
- ›Hurricane season impacts on Gulf of Mexico production and coastal refining infrastructure through month-end
- ›Seasonal demand decline as Labor Day passes and autumn driving patterns typically reduce consumption pressure
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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