Will average gas prices go below $3.70 by Sep 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$299
1 contracts
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
20 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will average gas prices go below $4.00 by Sep 30, 2026
Will average gas prices go below $4.00 by Sep 30, 2026?: Below $4.00
KXAAAGASMINM-26SEP30-4.00
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets assess a 47% chance average U.S. gas prices will fall below $3.70 per gallon by September 30, 2026. The current market lean reflects uncertainty about near-term crude oil supply, global demand signals, and refinery capacity through quarter-end. Oil prices, geopolitical events affecting production, and seasonal demand patterns are primary drivers—prices below $3.70 would require either sustained crude weakness or significant demand softening. The resolution depends on actual pump prices reported through September, with weekly data releases and any major supply disruptions serving as key catalysts for repricing. The 18¢ trading price on this specific contract and modest trading volume suggest limited liquidity around this particular threshold compared to nearby brackets like $3.80 (23¢, higher volume).
- ›Crude oil prices must remain under pressure to support sub-$3.70 retail averages; WTI currently above $70/bbl suggests limited margin
- ›Seasonal factors: late September typically shows declining demand as summer driving season ends, which could aid price declines
- ›Refinery maintenance schedules and any unexpected outages or supply disruptions over the next 27 days could shift the outcome significantly
- ›The $3.70 threshold sits between the $3.80 (23% implied probability) and $3.60 (12%) brackets, indicating markets see meaningful spread around this level
- ›Trading volume is extremely light ($3/day on this contract), suggesting low conviction or pricing efficiency concerns among active participants
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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