Will Air Canada report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 83%
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Above 85%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 9, 2026
139 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Air Canada report Above 8
Will Air Canada report Above 83% passenger load factor in Q2 2026?: Above 83%
KXAC-26AUGPLF-83.0
Will Air Canada report Above 87% passenger load factor in Q2 2026?: Above 87%
KXAC-26AUGPLF-87.0
Will Air Canada report Above 86.5% passenger load factor in Q2 2026?: Above 86.5%
KXAC-26AUGPLF-86.5
Will Air Canada report Above 86% passenger load factor in Q2 2026?: Above 86%
KXAC-26AUGPLF-86.0
Will Air Canada report Above 85.5% passenger load factor in Q2 2026?: Above 85.5%
KXAC-26AUGPLF-85.5
Will Air Canada report Above 85% passenger load factor in Q2 2026?: Above 85%
KXAC-26AUGPLF-85.0
Will Air Canada report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in Q2 2026?: Above 84.5%
KXAC-26AUGPLF-84.5
Analysis
The current 97% probability reflects high market confidence that Air Canada will report a passenger load factor above 84.5% for Q2 2026—a threshold indicating strong seat-fill rates during the summer travel quarter. The elevated probability reflects both seasonal demand patterns (summer is historically peak travel) and Air Canada's recent capacity management. Downside risks include economic weakness reducing leisure travel, fuel cost pressures forcing capacity cuts, or industry-wide disruptions. The resolution will occur when Air Canada releases Q2 2026 earnings and traffic data, typically in late July or early August 2026. The spread across nine contracts (from 11¢ to 97¢) suggests meaningful uncertainty about higher thresholds, even as the 84.5% floor appears well-supported.
- ›Q2 2026 represents peak summer travel season in North America, historically supporting elevated load factors across major carriers
- ›Air Canada's Q1 2026 load factor performance and recent capacity deployment decisions will provide direct evidence of operational trends
- ›Macroeconomic conditions (consumer spending, employment, currency exchange rates affecting business/leisure mix) influence demand elasticity during booking windows
- ›The 86+ percentage thresholds show much lower prices (11-37¢), indicating market skepticism about Air Canada exceeding strongest historical benchmarks
- ›Earnings release timing in late July or August 2026 will provide definitive verification of actual Q2 passenger load factor
What moved the line
- Jul 16Above 86.5%↑29pp14→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Above 86%↑17pp59→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Above 85%↑15pp77→92¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Above 87%↑15pp23→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Above 85.5%↑13pp72→85¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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