SimpleFunctions
10 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Jan 1, 2035 · 3159d

Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

8%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

8%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$23

10 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2035

3159 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 8% (25 days, 25 points)Aggregate: 8% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 25d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Glen Powell be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$23

Cluster 2

Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Oscar Isaac be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Jake Gyllenhaal be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Pedro Pascal be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Miles Teller be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Taylor Kitsch be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Tom Hardy be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Richard Madden be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Garrett Hedlund be casted in the next Miami Vice

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market estimates a 7% chance that Ryan Gosling will be cast in a new Miami Vice film. The probability reflects the current lack of confirmed casting information for any such project. Two primary factors shape this assessment: whether a Miami Vice remake or reboot is formally greenlit by a studio and moving through active casting, and whether Gosling—who has a selective approach to film roles—would be interested in and available for the project. The single biggest catalyst would be official studio announcement of a Miami Vice project in active development with a confirmed director and timeline, which would clarify whether casting discussions have begun. Without such confirmation, the market reflects the baseline uncertainty of predicting any specific actor's involvement in a hypothetical future film.

  • No confirmed Miami Vice remake or reboot project has been publicly announced as of May 2026
  • Gosling typically commits to 1-2 films annually and maintains selective project choices
  • An official studio greenlight with director attached would be required to make casting discussions material and observable
  • Gosling's recent filmography and stated preferences would need to align with the tone and creative vision of any new Miami Vice project
  • Previous Miami Vice adaptations and reboots have faced production delays or cancellations, affecting baseline probability of the project occurring at all

What moved the line

  • May 2Glen Powell7pp2215¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Glen Powell6pp2014¢ · Kalshi
  • May 3Taylor Kitsch5pp105¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2Ryan Gosling4pp95¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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