Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2035
3113 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Glen Powell be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Glen Powell be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Glen Powell
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-GLE
Cluster 2
Will Miles Teller be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Miles Teller be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Miles Teller
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-MIL
Cluster 3
Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Ryan Gosling
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-RYA
Cluster 4
Will Oscar Isaac be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Oscar Isaac be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Oscar Isaac
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-OSC
Cluster 5
Will Jake Gyllenhaal be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Jake Gyllenhaal be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Jake Gyllenhaal
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-JAK
Cluster 6
Will Pedro Pascal be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Pedro Pascal be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Pedro Pascal
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-PED
Cluster 7
Will Taylor Kitsch be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Taylor Kitsch be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Taylor Kitsch
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-TAY
Cluster 8
Will Tom Hardy be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Tom Hardy be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Tom Hardy
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-TOM
Cluster 9
Will Richard Madden be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Richard Madden be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Richard Madden
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-RIC
Cluster 10
Will Garrett Hedlund be casted in the next Miami Vice
Will Garrett Hedlund be casted in the next Miami Vice?: Garrett Hedlund
KXACTORSONNYCROCKETT-35-GAR
Analysis
This market estimates a 7% chance that Ryan Gosling will be cast in a new Miami Vice film. The probability reflects the current lack of confirmed casting information for any such project. Two primary factors shape this assessment: whether a Miami Vice remake or reboot is formally greenlit by a studio and moving through active casting, and whether Gosling—who has a selective approach to film roles—would be interested in and available for the project. The single biggest catalyst would be official studio announcement of a Miami Vice project in active development with a confirmed director and timeline, which would clarify whether casting discussions have begun. Without such confirmation, the market reflects the baseline uncertainty of predicting any specific actor's involvement in a hypothetical future film.
- ›No confirmed Miami Vice remake or reboot project has been publicly announced as of May 2026
- ›Gosling typically commits to 1-2 films annually and maintains selective project choices
- ›An official studio greenlight with director attached would be required to make casting discussions material and observable
- ›Gosling's recent filmography and stated preferences would need to align with the tone and creative vision of any new Miami Vice project
- ›Previous Miami Vice adaptations and reboots have faced production delays or cancellations, affecting baseline probability of the project occurring at all
What moved the line
- Jun 23Miles Teller↓6pp23→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Glen Powell↑5pp18→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Miles Teller↓4pp19→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Miles Teller↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Jake Gyllenhaal↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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