Will Nigeria win the Africa Cup of Nations
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$55
6 contracts
Closes
Aug 3, 2027
339 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Morocco win the Africa Cup of Nations
Will Morocco win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Morocco
KXAFCON-27-MAR
Cluster 2
Will Congo DR win the Africa Cup of Nations
Will Congo DR win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Congo DR
KXAFCON-27-COD
Cluster 3
Will Cameroon win the Africa Cup of Nations
Will Cameroon win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Cameroon
KXAFCON-27-CMR
Cluster 4
Will Egypt win the Africa Cup of Nations
Will Egypt win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Egypt
KXAFCON-27-EGY
Cluster 5
Will Ghana win the Africa Cup of Nations
Will Ghana win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Ghana
KXAFCON-27-GHA
Cluster 6
Will Nigeria win the Africa Cup of Nations
Will Nigeria win the Africa Cup of Nations?: Nigeria
KXAFCON-27-NGR
Analysis
This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Nigeria will win the Africa Cup of Nations tournament. The market views Nigeria as a clear underdog compared to Morocco (21%) and Ghana (19%), suggesting traders believe other nations have stronger current rosters or form. Nigeria's probability could shift based on team performance in qualifying matches, injury updates to key players, or changes in coaching staff before the tournament. The tournament itself will ultimately resolve this contract when matches are played and a winner is crowned. Traders appear to be pricing in recent competitive trends across African football, though the relatively low trading volume indicates limited liquidity in these contracts and potential uncertainty in market pricing.
- ›Nigeria's current FIFA ranking and recent tournament performance compared to Morocco and Ghana
- ›Injury status and availability of Nigeria's key players leading up to the tournament
- ›Nigeria's qualifying round results and goal differential if tournament qualification is still pending
- ›Historical head-to-head records between Nigeria and other top African nations in recent years
- ›Market pricing anomalies—Nigeria at 3¢ while Ghana is 19¢ suggests either strong confidence in Nigeria's weakness or thin liquidity affecting contract valuations
What moved the line
- Aug 22Egypt↑9pp2→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Egypt↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27Nigeria↓6pp9→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Morocco↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Mandela Barnes finish 2nd in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 2d
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 7d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 8d
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 9d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.