Will Mandela Barnes finish 2nd in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 11, 2027
349 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will David Crowley finish 2nd in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary
Analysis
This probability reflects the current betting odds that Mandela Barnes finishes second in Wisconsin's 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary. At 33%, the market suggests Barnes has a meaningful but not dominant chance of a second-place finish. The probability is shaped primarily by two considerations: Barnes's political profile and fundraising capacity relative to other Democratic candidates, and the overall field composition—whether the primary features a crowded field favoring vote-splitting or a concentrated two-candidate race. The resolution will be determined by the actual primary vote totals in August 2026, with outcomes depending on which candidates ultimately compete, their relative campaign strength, and voter turnout. Currently, David Crowley shows higher implied odds at 61%, suggesting market participants view him as a stronger second-place contender than Barnes, though significant uncertainty remains about the final field and vote distribution.
- ›As of late July 2026, the number and identity of Democratic primary candidates competing remains a key variable affecting Barnes's placement odds
- ›Fundraising totals, recent polling data, and endorsement patterns would directly indicate whether Barnes maintains competitive standing relative to rivals like Crowley
- ›Primary election results on the scheduled date will provide the definitive vote count determining who finishes second
- ›Campaign momentum and media coverage in the final weeks before the primary could shift voter preferences and candidate viability
- ›Voter turnout levels in different regions could disproportionately favor certain candidates depending on their demographic and geographic support bases
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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