Will USAID be eliminated
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
987 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will USAID be eliminated
Will USAID be eliminated?: USAID
KXAGENCYELIM-29-USAID
Cluster 2
Will EPA be eliminated
Will EPA be eliminated?: EPA
KXAGENCYELIM-29-EPA
Cluster 3
Will IRS be eliminated
Will IRS be eliminated?: IRS
KXAGENCYELIM-29-IRS
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will be formally eliminated or cease operations. At 19%, the market suggests elimination is possible but not the central expectation. Key drivers include ongoing political discussions about foreign aid spending and administrative restructuring proposals. The primary uncertainty centers on legislative action and executive policy decisions that would be required to dismantle the agency. Congressional appropriations cycles and statements from relevant officials would provide the most direct resolution signals. The current level reflects political debate intensity balanced against institutional inertia and the practical complexity of eliminating a large federal agency.
- ›Congressional legislation would be required to formally eliminate USAID, making legislative outcomes and party composition in coming sessions critical indicators
- ›Recent budget proposals and statements from executive branch officials regarding USAID's future form the immediate political baseline
- ›Historical precedent shows major federal agency eliminations are rare and typically require sustained bipartisan or single-party supermajority support
- ›Any restructuring short of formal elimination (such as reorganization, budget cuts, or consolidation into other agencies) would not resolve this contract positively
- ›International diplomatic and development policy priorities, as reflected in official statements and proposed alternatives, indicate relative political appetite for foreign aid functions
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.