Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,750
Leader sits at 93% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $750
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
Above $1,000
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$555
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
364 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $
Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $750?: Above $750
KXAKPFD-27SEP20-T750
Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,750?: Above $1,750
KXAKPFD-27SEP20-T1750
Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,500?: Above $1,500
KXAKPFD-27SEP20-T1500
Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,250?: Above $1,250
KXAKPFD-27SEP20-T1250
Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,000?: Above $1,000
KXAKPFD-27SEP20-T1000
Analysis
The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) for 2027 is projected to exceed $1,750 with 6% probability according to current market prices, reflecting skepticism about dividend payments reaching that threshold. The PFD amount depends primarily on the fund's investment returns and the statutory calculation formula that distributes a portion of the fund's realized earnings. Market prices suggest traders expect the 2027 dividend to land between $750–$1,250, with high confidence it will exceed $750. The dividend amount will be officially announced in late 2026 or early 2027 based on the fund's performance through the prior fiscal year, making historical returns and current market conditions the critical drivers of the final payout level.
- ›The Alaska Permanent Fund's 2026 market performance and realized returns directly determine the 2027 payout under the statutory formula
- ›Historical PFD amounts ranged from roughly $1,000–$2,000 depending on fund performance; 2025 payouts were approximately $1,312 per person
- ›The fund must publish 2027 dividend projections or official amounts in late 2026, creating a concrete resolution date
- ›Federal and state legislation changes to the PFD formula or distribution rules could alter the payout, though such changes are infrequent
- ›Oil price volatility and broader equity market conditions between now and the calculation deadline influence the fund's asset base and investment returns
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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