Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 81%
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 81.5%
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 27, 2027
266 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 8
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 81%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-81
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 85% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 85%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-85
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 84.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 84.5%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-84.5
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 84% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 84%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-84
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 83.5%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-83.5
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 83% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 83%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-83
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 82.5%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-82.5
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 82% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 82%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-82
Will Alaska Air Group Inc. report Above 81.5% passenger load factor in fiscal 2026?: Above 81.5%
KXALKA-27JANPLF-81.5
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that Alaska Air Group will achieve a passenger load factor above 85% when reporting fiscal 2026 results. The extremely low price (3 cents) suggests markets view this outcome as highly unlikely, despite confidence that the airline will exceed 81% load factors. Key drivers include seasonal demand patterns, fuel costs, competition, and Alaska's capacity management during peak travel periods. The resolution hinges on Alaska Air's official fiscal 2026 financial reporting, expected in early 2027, which will disclose actual load factor performance. Current market pricing indicates a sharp drop-off in probability between 81-85% load factors, suggesting traders expect meaningful headwinds at higher thresholds.
- ›Alaska Air's historical load factors and whether 85%+ has been achieved or approached in prior fiscal years
- ›Macro airline capacity growth and industry load factor trends for fiscal 2026 relative to demand
- ›Alaska Air's specific capacity additions or retirements scheduled during fiscal 2026
- ›Seasonal demand volatility and economic conditions affecting summer and winter travel bookings
- ›Competitive pricing pressure and market share dynamics in Alaska's core West Coast routes
What moved the line
- Jul 29Above 83%↓41pp72→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Above 83.5%↓25pp47→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Above 82.5%↓23pp68→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Above 84%↓20pp33→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above 82%↓10pp85→75¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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