Will Centerview take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7
15 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
490 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Piper Sandler take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Piper Sandler take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Piper Sandler
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-PIPRX
Cluster 2
Will Raymond James take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Raymond James take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Raymond James
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-RJFX
Cluster 3
Will Allen & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Allen & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Allen & Company
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-ALLCX
Cluster 4
Will Centerview take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Centerview take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Centerview
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-CVPXX
Cluster 5
Will Evercore take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Evercore take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Evercore
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-EVRX
Cluster 6
Will Greenhill & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Greenhill & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Greenhill & Co
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-GHLX
Cluster 7
Will Lazard take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Lazard take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Lazard
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-LAZX
Cluster 8
Will Moelis & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Moelis & Company take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Moelis & Company
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-MCX
Cluster 9
Will Mizuho take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Mizuho take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Mizuho
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-MZHOX
Cluster 10
Will PJT Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will PJT Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: PJT Partners
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-PJTX
Cluster 11
Will Perella Weinberg Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Cluster 12
Will Qatalyst Partners take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Cluster 13
Will Rothschild & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Rothschild & Co take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Rothschild & Co
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-ROTHX
Cluster 14
Will Stifel Financial take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will Stifel Financial take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: Stifel Financial
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-SFX
Cluster 15
Will William Blair take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028
Will William Blair take Anthropic public before Jan 1, 2028?: William Blair
KXANTHROPICBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-WBLAX
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Centerview Partners will serve as lead advisor for an Anthropic IPO within 18 months. Market participants are pricing in a 31% chance of this specific outcome, though related contracts show varying probabilities for other investment banks in the same role. The main drivers are Anthropic's current funding status, profitability trajectory, and stated timeline for going public—the company has indicated interest in an eventual IPO but has not announced specific timing. Key factors include whether Anthropic reaches profitability, regulatory clarity around AI companies, broader market conditions for tech IPOs, and Centerview's competitive position relative to other major investment banks already priced higher on similar contracts. The resolution depends on an official IPO announcement naming Centerview as lead advisor before January 1, 2028.
- ›Anthropic's current private valuation and cash position relative to IPO readiness timeline
- ›Centerview's historical success winning AI/tech advisory mandates compared to competing banks
- ›Regulatory developments affecting AI company public market eligibility and disclosure requirements
- ›Broader IPO market conditions and tech sector investor appetite between now and end of 2027
- ›Whether Anthropic announces IPO plans publicly and identifies lead financial advisors
What moved the line
- Aug 25Stifel Financial↓24pp44→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27Stifel Financial↓17pp31→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Stifel Financial↑11pp20→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Lazard↓7pp18→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Centerview↓6pp14→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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