Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
497 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?: Phil Lyman
KXUTPRIMARY-03R26-PLYM
Cluster 2
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03?: Celeste Maloy
KXUTPRIMARY-03R26-CMAL
Cluster 3
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02?: Karianne Lisonbee
KXUTPRIMARY-02R26-KLIS
Cluster 4
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02?: Blake Moore
KXUTPRIMARY-02R26-BMOO
Analysis
This probability represents the current market assessment that Blake Moore will win the Republican primary nomination for Utah's 2nd congressional district. Moore faces competition from other potential candidates, with Karianne Lisonbee currently priced at 21 cents as the second most likely nominee. The 47-cent price reflects meaningful uncertainty about the primary outcome. Key drivers of the probability include Moore's existing political profile and fundraising capacity relative to competitors, plus the timing and composition of the actual primary field. The nomination will be determined at the Utah Republican Party's convention and/or primary election, which typically occur in the spring of election years. Any candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or changes in candidate participation would materially shift these probabilities. The low trading volume suggests limited market liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads on these contracts.
- ›Blake Moore's current political position, prior electoral performance, and name recognition compared to Lisonbee and other declared or potential primary challengers
- ›The specific rules and procedures for Utah's 2nd district Republican nomination process, including convention delegate allocation and any primary thresholds
- ›Major endorsements or stated opposition from Utah Republican Party leadership, existing elected officials, or significant donor networks
- ›Whether additional candidates enter the primary race, as new entrants could fragment the vote and shift Moore's nomination probability
- ›Timing and outcomes of early primary contests or convention votes in neighboring districts that might indicate broader Republican voter sentiment
What moved the line
- Jun 23Blake Moore↓13pp97→84¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Phil Lyman↓10pp13→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Blake Moore↑7pp84→91¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Celeste Maloy↑6pp90→96¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Phil Lyman↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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