Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
497 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Diana K Kastenbaum be the Democratic nominee for NY-24
Will Diana K Kastenbaum be the Democratic nominee for NY-24?: Diana K Kastenbaum
KXNYPRIMARY-24D26-DKAS
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Christopher Gallant will win the Democratic primary to represent New York's 1st Congressional District. The current 43% assessment indicates a competitive but uncertain race, with Lukas Ventouras priced at 28% as the second candidate. Key drivers of this probability include candidate funding, endorsements from local Democratic Party figures, and primary turnout patterns in eastern Long Island. The primary election date and subsequent vote totals will ultimately resolve this contract, providing definitive evidence of which candidate secured the Democratic nomination. The market prices in meaningful uncertainty, suggesting no single candidate has consolidated overwhelming support among Democratic voters in the district. Recent polling, candidate fundraising reports, and grassroots organization strength would significantly influence these probabilities closer to the election.
- ›Christopher Gallant's fundraising total and cash-on-hand position relative to primary opponents
- ›Endorsement pattern from established Democratic officials and organizations in NY-01
- ›Primary election turnout in NY-01 relative to historical averages, which affects which voter segment determines the outcome
- ›Polling data on candidate favorability and name recognition among registered Democrats in the district
- ›Campaign infrastructure and volunteer organization metrics in key precincts
What moved the line
- Jun 21Diana K Kastenbaum↑13pp14→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Diana K Kastenbaum↓12pp21→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Diana K Kastenbaum↓5pp26→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 0d
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- Will Jack Schlossberg be the Democratic nominee for NY-12last 49% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (16% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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