Will RÜFÜS DU SOL have 100000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 70% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
70%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
174 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Post Malone have
Will Post Malone have 5750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 5.75B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-POSTY26DEC31-5.75B
Will Post Malone have 6250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 6.25B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-POSTY26DEC31-6.25B
Cluster 2
Will Hamdi have
Will Hamdi have 45000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 45M
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-HAMDI26DEC31-45.0M
Will Hamdi have 35000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 35M
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-HAMDI26DEC31-35.0M
Cluster 3
Will Sabrina Carpenter have
Will Sabrina Carpenter have 9750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 9.75B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-SCARP26DEC31-9.75B
Will Sabrina Carpenter have 10250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 10.25B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-SCARP26DEC31-10.25B
Cluster 4
Will Taylor Swift have 24000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 5
Will Billie Eilish have 11250000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Ariana Grande have 9750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 7
Will Chris Stussy have 245000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 8
Will 2Pac have 3200000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 9
Will Carlita have 50000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 10
Will Kendrick Lamar have 9750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 11
Will Bad Bunny have 32000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 12
Will Drake have 26000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 13
Will Bruno Mars have 18500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 14
Will Peso Pluma have 16500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 15
Will SZA have 7750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 16
Will Daniel Allan have 42500000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 17
Will Tito Double P have 13000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Analysis
This contract asks whether the electronic music group RÜFÜS DU SOL will accumulate at least 100 million streams on Luminate (formerly MRC Data) during 2026. The 90% probability reflects market confidence that an established electronic act will reach this threshold across the full calendar year. The probability is supported by comparable contracts on other artists—Black Coffee is priced at 96% for 130 million streams, and PAWSA at 92% for 210 million—suggesting 100 million is a relatively modest benchmark for a touring act with an existing fanbase. The main uncertainty revolves around release activity: whether RÜFÜS DU SOL will release new material or conduct significant touring during 2026, and how competitive the streaming landscape remains for electronic music. Streaming volume will accumulate until December 31, 2026, when the total is definitively recorded, making year-end Luminate data the final resolution point.
- ›RÜFÜS DU SOL's release schedule in 2026—new albums or EPs would substantially increase streaming velocity compared to catalog-only streams
- ›Historical streaming baseline—their 2025 annual total provides a floor estimate; 100M requires roughly 8.3M monthly average
- ›Touring activity and playlist placement—major tour promotion and DSP playlisting (particularly on electronic/dance-focused playlists) drive consumption spikes
- ›Competitive streaming share—growth in the electronic music category and new artist releases may fragment listener attention away from established acts
- ›Luminate data methodology changes—any shifts in how streams are counted or attributed could affect whether the 100M threshold is met
What moved the line
- Jul 10Above 50M↓17pp52→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Above 16.5B↓13pp50→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Above 26.0B↑8pp81→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Above 50M↑6pp46→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Above 26.0B↓5pp86→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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