Will RÜFÜS DU SOL have 100000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 86% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
86%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
221 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Drake have 2
Will Drake have 26000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 26.0B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-DRAKE26DEC31-26.0B
Will Drake have 28000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 28.0B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-DRAKE26DEC31-28.0B
Will Drake have 27000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 27.0B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-DRAKE26DEC31-27.0B
Will Drake have 22000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 22B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-DRAKE26DEC31-22.0B
Cluster 2
Will Frank Ocean have 4
Will Frank Ocean have 4400000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 4.4B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-OCEAN26DEC31-4.4B
Will Frank Ocean have 4200000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026?: Above 4.2B
KXARTISTSTREAMSY-OCEAN26DEC31-4.2B
Cluster 3
Will The Beatles have 5000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 4
Will Michael Jackson have 10750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 5
Will FISHER have 225000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Beyoncé have 5500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026
What moved the line
- May 19Above 26.0B↑29pp29→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Above 28.0B↑24pp56→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 19Above 27.0B↑24pp26→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 25Above 225M↑22pp73→95¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Above 26.0B↑21pp58→79¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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