SimpleFunctions
10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 2, 2027 · 221d

Will RÜFÜS DU SOL have 100000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 86% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

86%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

86%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$3K

10 contracts

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

221 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 87% (14 days, 14 points)Aggregate: 87% on 2026-05-26
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 14d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Drake have 2

4 contracts$2K

Cluster 2

Will Frank Ocean have 4

2 contracts$262

Cluster 3

Will The Beatles have 5000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026

1 contract$503

Cluster 4

Will Michael Jackson have 10750000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026

1 contract$54

Cluster 5

Will FISHER have 225000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026

1 contract$50

Cluster 6

Will Beyoncé have 5500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 19Above 26.0B29pp2958¢ · Kalshi
  • May 22Above 28.0B24pp5680¢ · Kalshi
  • May 19Above 27.0B24pp2650¢ · Kalshi
  • May 25Above 225M22pp7395¢ · Kalshi
  • May 20Above 26.0B21pp5879¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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