Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 32%, Polymarket at 38% — a 6pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
19 contracts
Polymarket
38%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
6pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$242K
20 contracts
Closes
May 16, 2027
378 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 32¢ · Polymarket 38¢ · 6pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (32¢, 19 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (38¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
10 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Los Angeles D vs St. Louis” vs “Will St. Louis”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Winner?: Los Angeles D
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031415LADSTL-LAD
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Winner?: St. Louis
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031415LADSTL-STL
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis First Inning Run?: Yes
KXMLBRFI-26MAY031415LADSTL
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Total Runs?: Over 13.5 runs scored
KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY031415LADSTL-14
Cluster 2
Will St. Louis
Will St. Louis be the 2026 NL Central Division Winner: St. Louis
KXMLBNLCENT-26-STL
Will St. Louis have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: St. Louis
KXMLBWORSTRECORD-26-STL
Will St. Louis win at least 75 games this season?: 75+ wins
KXMLBWINS-STL-26-T75
Cluster 3
Austin vs Saint Louis Winner
Cluster 4
Will Julia Letlow
Will Julia Letlow and John Fleming advance in the 2026 Louisiana Republican primary?: Julia Letlow vs. John Fleming
KXLASENMATCHUP-26MAY-JLETJFLE
Will Julia Letlow and Bill Cassidy advance in the 2026 Louisiana Republican primary?: Julia Letlow vs. Bill Cassidy
KXLASENMATCHUP-26MAY-JLETBCAS
Cluster 5
Will Zero Tenacity win
Cluster 6
Milwaukee vs St. Louis Winner
Cluster 7
St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs
St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs?: St. Louis wins by over 1.5 runs
KXMLBSPREAD-26MAY031415LADSTL-STL2
Cluster 8
Saint Louis at Austin: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
Saint Louis at Austin: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY03ATXSTL-2
Cluster 9
What will be Auston Matthews's next team
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: St. Louis Blues
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-STL
Cluster 10
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: St. Louis CITY SC
0x4cc999…65be
Analysis
This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Austin FC will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming match. The substantial 28-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on the likelihood, with Kalshi pricing Austin's victory significantly higher at 62%. Polymarket's lower aggregate of 34% indicates broader skepticism about Austin's prospects, potentially driven by differences in how each market weights team form, home-field advantage, or injury status. The relatively low trading volume on most Austin-St. Louis contracts suggests limited market conviction overall. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result is recorded, with the outcome determined by actual in-game performance rather than underlying team metrics.
- ›Kalshi prices Austin FC victory at 62% versus Polymarket's 34%, indicating a material difference in fundamental assumptions between venues
- ›Trading volume is thin across most Austin-St. Louis contracts ($65–$140 per day), suggesting limited participation may amplify price disparities
- ›The draw probability on Polymarket sits at 27%, which combined with St. Louis City SC's 16% under-1.5-goal spread implies markets expect a low-scoring match
- ›Home-field advantage, current league standing, head-to-head history, and injury reports would typically explain the direction of the probability
- ›The match outcome is binary and contractually determined, eliminating ambiguity in settlement once play concludes
What moved the line
- Apr 28St. Louis CITY SC↑40pp10→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Julia Letlow vs. John Fleming↑18pp17→35¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Julia Letlow vs. John Fleming↓14pp31→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 3St. Louis↑12pp37→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Zero Tenacity↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.