Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC
Leader sits at 81% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
75+ wins
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
St. Louis
Spread
77pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$248
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
142 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will St. Louis
Analysis
This 36% probability reflects market expectations that Austin FC will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming match. The substantial 28-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on the likelihood, with Kalshi pricing Austin's victory significantly higher at 62%. Polymarket's lower aggregate of 34% indicates broader skepticism about Austin's prospects, potentially driven by differences in how each market weights team form, home-field advantage, or injury status. The relatively low trading volume on most Austin-St. Louis contracts suggests limited market conviction overall. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the final result is recorded, with the outcome determined by actual in-game performance rather than underlying team metrics.
- ›Kalshi prices Austin FC victory at 62% versus Polymarket's 34%, indicating a material difference in fundamental assumptions between venues
- ›Trading volume is thin across most Austin-St. Louis contracts ($65–$140 per day), suggesting limited participation may amplify price disparities
- ›The draw probability on Polymarket sits at 27%, which combined with St. Louis City SC's 16% under-1.5-goal spread implies markets expect a low-scoring match
- ›Home-field advantage, current league standing, head-to-head history, and injury reports would typically explain the direction of the probability
- ›The match outcome is binary and contractually determined, eliminating ambiguity in settlement once play concludes
What moved the line
- Jun 2075+ wins↓16pp86→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2175+ wins↑11pp70→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2475+ wins↑6pp78→84¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2575+ wins↓3pp84→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (81% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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