Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 700 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 560
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 580
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Mar 31, 2028
559 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 560 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 560
KXBAA-28JANDELIV-560
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 640 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 640
KXBAA-28JANDELIV-640
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 620 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 620
KXBAA-28JANDELIV-620
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 660 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 660
KXBAA-28JANDELIV-660
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 600 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 600
KXBAA-28JANDELIV-600
Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 580 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?: Above 580
KXBAA-28JANDELIV-580
Analysis
This question asks whether Boeing will deliver more than 700 commercial aircraft in 2026. The market currently assigns 93% probability to Boeing exceeding 560 deliveries, but only 5% probability to exceeding 700, reflecting steep uncertainty about higher production levels. Boeing's delivery trajectory depends on manufacturing capacity recovery following recent quality and safety scrutiny, supply chain constraints, and workforce availability. The company has stated targets around 600+ deliveries, making 700+ a significant stretch. Resolution will occur when Boeing reports full-year 2026 delivery figures, typically in January 2027. Near-term catalysts include quarterly earnings reports and any production rate guidance updates throughout 2026.
- ›Boeing's stated 2026 production guidance and any formal updates to delivery rate targets
- ›Supply chain capacity and component availability constraints that limit assembly throughput
- ›FAA certification and quality inspection timelines affecting aircraft release for delivery
- ›Actual year-to-date deliveries through Q3 2026 as a predictor of full-year potential
- ›Customer acceptance rates and deferrals, which influence whether built aircraft are formally delivered
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 660↓21pp35→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 640↓14pp68→54¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 580↑4pp90→94¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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