Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$249
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 31, 2028
749 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kon Knueppel be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 2
Will Devin Booker be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 3
Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 4
Will Jalen Brunson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 5
Will Cade Cunningham be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 6
Will Anthony Edwards be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 7
Will Jayson Tatum be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 8
Will Cooper Flagg be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 9
Will Chet Holmgren be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 10
Will Jalen Duren be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 11
Will Bam Adebayo be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 12
Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 13
Will Amen Thompson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 14
Will Jaylen Brown be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 15
Will LeBron James be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 16
Will Kevin Durant be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 17
Will Stephen Curry be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 18
Will Cameron Boozer be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 19
Will AJ Dybantsa be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 20
Will Darryn Peterson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Donovan Mitchell will make the USA Men's Basketball roster for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. At 48%, the market sees him as roughly a coin-flip candidate—competitive but not assured of selection. Mitchell's case depends primarily on his performance over the next two years and how the pool of available guards shapes up. Younger players like Ausar Thompson (9¢) and AJ Dybantsa (11¢) are considered much longer shots, while established stars like Anthony Edwards (91¢) are heavily favored. Mitchell's selection probability will likely shift based on his injury history, statistical performance relative to other guards, and Team USA's roster construction strategy. The 2028 selection process will occur in spring 2028, roughly 22 months away, allowing substantial time for player development and circumstances to change.
- ›Mitchell's availability and health status from 2026-2028, as previous injuries have periodically affected his participation and performance
- ›His scoring efficiency and overall statistical production relative to competing guards during the 2026-27 and 2027-28 NBA seasons
- ›The broader depth and quality of USA Men's Basketball guards available in 2028, which affects relative roster demand
- ›Team USA's preferred roster composition and whether they prioritize experienced veterans or younger emerging talent
- ›Coaching staff preferences and selection criteria established by the national team program for 2028
What moved the line
- Jul 7Cooper Flagg↑29pp25→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Cade Cunningham↑27pp66→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Chet Holmgren↓27pp83→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Chet Holmgren↑27pp56→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Cade Cunningham↓26pp92→66¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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