Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
6¢
$0 · Kalshi
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Anthony” vs “Will Donovan”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Anthony
Will Anthony Davis be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Anthony Davis
KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28-ADAVIS23
Will Anthony Edwards be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Anthony Edwards
KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28-AEDWARDS5
Cluster 2
Will Donovan
Will Donovan Clingan be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Donovan Clingan
KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28-DCLINGAN23
Will Donovan Mitchell be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics?: Donovan Mitchell
KXBBALLTEAMUSA-28-DMITCHELL45
Cluster 3
Will AJ Dybantsa be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 4
Will Austin Reaves be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 5
Will Amen Thompson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 6
Will Bam Adebayo be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 7
Will Cameron Boozer be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 8
Will Cade Cunningham be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 9
Will Cooper Flagg be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 10
Will Chet Holmgren be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 11
Will Devin Booker be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 12
Will Derrick White be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 13
Will Evan Mobley be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 14
Will Jarrett Allen be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 15
Will Jaylen Brown be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 16
Will Jalen Brunson be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 17
Will Jalen Duren be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
Cluster 18
Will Joel Embiid be selected to the USA Men's Basketball team for the 2028 Summer Olympics
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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