SimpleFunctions
18 source contracts·Kalshi 18·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 128d

Will Barrett Pfeiffer finish in 2 place in Big Brother Season 28

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 18 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

8%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

8%

18 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$2K

18 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

128 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 10% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 10% on 2026-08-25
Aggregate of 18 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 18 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Barrett Pfeiffer finish” vs “Will Angela Murray finish”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Barrett Pfeiffer finish

2 contracts$654

Cluster 2

Will Angela Murray finish

2 contracts$255

Cluster 3

Will Rick Devens finish

2 contracts$252

Cluster 4

Will Drew Campbell finish

2 contracts$215

Cluster 5

Will Dee Valladares finish

2 contracts$187

Cluster 6

Will Haley Thogmartin finish

2 contracts$77

Cluster 7

Will Melody Morris finish

2 contracts$72

Cluster 8

Will Mallory Aurichio finish

2 contracts$9

Cluster 9

Will LaTrice Verrett finish in 2 place in Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$349

Cluster 10

Will Yash Patel finish in 2 place in Big Brother Season 28

1 contract$27

Analysis

This represents the estimated likelihood that Barrett Pfeiffer will finish as the runner-up in Big Brother Season 28. The 7% probability reflects a relatively low probability of second-place finish, placing Pfeiffer among several contestants with similar odds. The current level is likely driven by the distribution of remaining houseguests still in competition and Pfeiffer's gameplay performance and social positioning relative to other finalists. The main catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty is the finale itself, when the final two houseguests are determined and voted on by the jury. Any major shifts in alliance dynamics, competitive wins, or voting patterns before the finale could meaningfully alter these odds.

  • Barrett Pfeiffer's current status in the game (still active, on the block, or eliminated) determines whether a second-place finish remains possible
  • Odds are distributed relatively evenly across multiple contestants (most around 6-13 cents), suggesting genuine uncertainty about who reaches finale
  • Lyric Medeiros trades at 13 cents—the highest among these runner-up contracts—suggesting market participants view them as a stronger finalist candidate
  • No trading volume in 24 hours indicates low recent activity and limited new information moving the market
  • The finale date will determine when this market resolves to a definitive outcome

What moved the line

  • Aug 24Barrett Pfeiffer6pp1319¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 18Drew Campbell4pp48¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22Melody Morris4pp37¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22Rick Devens4pp913¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22Angela Murray3pp36¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.