Will Barrett Pfeiffer finish in 2 place in Big Brother Season 28
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
128 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Barrett Pfeiffer finish” vs “Will Angela Murray finish”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Barrett Pfeiffer finish
Cluster 2
Will Angela Murray finish
Cluster 3
Will Rick Devens finish
Cluster 4
Will Drew Campbell finish
Cluster 5
Will Dee Valladares finish
Cluster 6
Will Haley Thogmartin finish
Cluster 7
Will Melody Morris finish
Cluster 8
Will Mallory Aurichio finish
Cluster 9
Will LaTrice Verrett finish in 2 place in Big Brother Season 28
Will LaTrice Verrett finish in 2 place in Big Brother Season 28?: LaTrice Verrett
KXBIGBROTHERRANK-26DEC31R2-LAT
Cluster 10
Will Yash Patel finish in 2 place in Big Brother Season 28
Will Yash Patel finish in 2 place in Big Brother Season 28?: Yash Patel
KXBIGBROTHERRANK-26DEC31R2-YAS
Analysis
This represents the estimated likelihood that Barrett Pfeiffer will finish as the runner-up in Big Brother Season 28. The 7% probability reflects a relatively low probability of second-place finish, placing Pfeiffer among several contestants with similar odds. The current level is likely driven by the distribution of remaining houseguests still in competition and Pfeiffer's gameplay performance and social positioning relative to other finalists. The main catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty is the finale itself, when the final two houseguests are determined and voted on by the jury. Any major shifts in alliance dynamics, competitive wins, or voting patterns before the finale could meaningfully alter these odds.
- ›Barrett Pfeiffer's current status in the game (still active, on the block, or eliminated) determines whether a second-place finish remains possible
- ›Odds are distributed relatively evenly across multiple contestants (most around 6-13 cents), suggesting genuine uncertainty about who reaches finale
- ›Lyric Medeiros trades at 13 cents—the highest among these runner-up contracts—suggesting market participants view them as a stronger finalist candidate
- ›No trading volume in 24 hours indicates low recent activity and limited new information moving the market
- ›The finale date will determine when this market resolves to a definitive outcome
What moved the line
- Aug 24Barrett Pfeiffer↑6pp13→19¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Drew Campbell↑4pp4→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Melody Morris↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Rick Devens↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Angela Murray↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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