Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$50
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will John Solomon join the Trump administration
Will John Solomon join the Trump administration?: John Solomon
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-JSOL
Analysis
This 8% probability reflects the market's assessment that Glenn Youngkin has a low likelihood of joining a Trump administration in the near term. Youngkin, Virginia's current governor, would need to either leave office or take a position while remaining governor. The probability is driven primarily by his stated focus on his gubernatorial role and limited public signals of interest in a federal appointment. Factors pushing this higher would include explicit statements from Trump or Youngkin about such an arrangement, or political circumstances making a departure from Virginia advantageous. The main resolution catalyst would be any formal announcement of a Trump cabinet or administration position, or the clear passage of time until the end of a potential Trump term makes such appointments less likely. Market interest remains modest, with relatively low trading volume compared to other potential Trump administration appointments.
- ›Youngkin has not publicly expressed interest in joining a Trump administration and remains focused on his current gubernatorial duties in Virginia
- ›Trump has not publicly nominated or indicated plans to appoint Youngkin to a cabinet or administration role
- ›Youngkin's political positioning has occasionally diverged from Trump on key issues, suggesting potential structural misalignment
- ›Similar appointment probabilities for DeSantis (10%) and Ken Paxton (6%) suggest the baseline rate for governors/officials joining the administration is low
- ›Trading volume on this contract ($1,133 in 24 hours) is substantially lower than contracts on Trump's reelection or his son's nomination, indicating limited market conviction
Recently closed in trump
- Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026last 48% · 4d
- Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom meet before May 1, 2026last 7% · 8d
- Will Trump say "Fort Trump" before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 8d
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 25last 4% · 8d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Jun 2026last 97% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
Trump Sayings Market Explodes: 'TDS' Nearly Certain
The KXTRUMPSAY series has seen massive volume, with 'Trump says TDS' at 99¢ and 74k volume. These markets capture real-time political rhetoric and have become a unique prediction asset.
High-Conviction Bets on Trump Attending World Cup Final
Donald Trump attending the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final is priced at 88¢, among the highest conviction bets across all topics. This is a proxy for broader political event attendance and has implications for diplomatic optics and market sentiment. The market on his removal from office before 2029 remains low at 31¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.