Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
9 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
53 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration
Will Ron DeSantis join the Trump administration?: Ron DeSantis
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-RDES
Cluster 2
Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration
Will Glenn Youngkin join the Trump administration?: Glenn Youngkin
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-GYOU
Cluster 3
Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration
Will Rick Rieder join the Trump administration?: Rick Rieder
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-RRIE
Cluster 4
Will Eric Adams join the Trump administration
Will Eric Adams join the Trump administration?: Eric Adams
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-EADA
Cluster 5
Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration
Will Marc Rowan join the Trump administration?: Marc Rowan
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-MROW
Cluster 6
Will Steve Bannon join the Trump administration
Will Steve Bannon join the Trump administration?: Steve Bannon
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-SBAN
Cluster 7
Will Nicki Minaj join the Trump administration
Will Nicki Minaj join the Trump administration?: Nicki Minaj
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-NMIN
Cluster 8
Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration
Will Phil McGraw join the Trump administration?: Phil McGraw
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-PMCG
Cluster 9
Will Ken Paxton join the Trump administration
Will Ken Paxton join the Trump administration?: Ken Paxton
KXJOINTRUMPADMIN-26JUL01-KPAX
Analysis
This 8% probability reflects the market's assessment that Glenn Youngkin has a low likelihood of joining a Trump administration in the near term. Youngkin, Virginia's current governor, would need to either leave office or take a position while remaining governor. The probability is driven primarily by his stated focus on his gubernatorial role and limited public signals of interest in a federal appointment. Factors pushing this higher would include explicit statements from Trump or Youngkin about such an arrangement, or political circumstances making a departure from Virginia advantageous. The main resolution catalyst would be any formal announcement of a Trump cabinet or administration position, or the clear passage of time until the end of a potential Trump term makes such appointments less likely. Market interest remains modest, with relatively low trading volume compared to other potential Trump administration appointments.
- ›Youngkin has not publicly expressed interest in joining a Trump administration and remains focused on his current gubernatorial duties in Virginia
- ›Trump has not publicly nominated or indicated plans to appoint Youngkin to a cabinet or administration role
- ›Youngkin's political positioning has occasionally diverged from Trump on key issues, suggesting potential structural misalignment
- ›Similar appointment probabilities for DeSantis (10%) and Ken Paxton (6%) suggest the baseline rate for governors/officials joining the administration is low
- ›Trading volume on this contract ($1,133 in 24 hours) is substantially lower than contracts on Trump's reelection or his son's nomination, indicating limited market conviction
What moved the line
- May 2Glenn Youngkin↓8pp22→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Ron DeSantis↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Ron DeSantis↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Glenn Youngkin↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Nicki Minaj↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.