Will Ruben Gallego be out as House member before July 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$30
7 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
53 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ro Khanna be out as House member before July 2026
Will Ro Khanna be out as House member before July 2026?: Ro Khanna
KXLEAVEHOUSE-26APR-RKHA
Cluster 2
Will Nancy Mace be out as House member before July 2026
Will Nancy Mace be out as House member before July 2026?: Nancy Mace
KXLEAVEHOUSE-26APR-NMAC
Cluster 3
Will Cory Mills be out as House member before July 2026
Will Cory Mills be out as House member before July 2026?: Cory Mills
KXLEAVEHOUSE-26APR-CMIL
Cluster 4
Will Ruben Gallego be out as House member before July 2026
Will Ruben Gallego be out as House member before July 2026?: Ruben Gallego
KXLEAVEHOUSE-26APR-RGAL
Cluster 5
Will Mike Collins be out as House member before July 2026
Will Mike Collins be out as House member before July 2026?: Mike Collins
KXLEAVEHOUSE-26APR-MCOL
Cluster 6
Will Mitch McConnell be out as Senator before July 2026
Will Mitch McConnell be out as Senator before July 2026?: Mitch McConnell
KXLEAVEHOUSE-26APR-MMCC
Cluster 7
Will Chuck Edwards be out as U.S. House member before July 2026
Will Chuck Edwards be out as U.S. House member before July 2026?: Chuck Edwards
KXLEAVEHOUSE-26MAY-CEDW
Analysis
This market estimates an 8% chance that Ruben Gallego will leave his House seat before July 2026. Gallego currently represents Arizona's 3rd district. The low probability reflects the absence of current indicators suggesting imminent departure—he would need to resign, be expelled, or face circumstances forcing him from office within roughly two months. The probability could shift upward if significant personal circumstances, legal issues, or health crises emerged. With limited time remaining before the resolution date and no scheduled elections or procedural changes that would typically trigger departures, the market assigns relatively low odds to this outcome. The main way this resolves is through official congressional records confirming his status as of July 1, 2026.
- ›Gallego currently holds the seat with no announced plans to vacate before July 2026
- ›Members typically leave office through resignation, expulsion, or death—all uncommon events within a two-month window
- ›No pending legal cases, health issues, or scandals are publicly documented that would create pressure for departure
- ›The resolution depends on verifiable congressional records showing his official status on or around June 30, 2026
- ›Market volume is modest at $682 in 24-hour trading, suggesting limited commercial conviction in either direction
What moved the line
- May 6Cory Mills↓7pp33→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Ro Khanna↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Mitch McConnell↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.