Will BNB trimmed mean be above $610.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $600.00
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Above $610.00
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$530
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $6
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $600.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $600.00
KXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-60000
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $640.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $640.00
KXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-64000
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $650.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $650.00
KXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-65000
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $610.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $610.00
KXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-61000
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $620.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $620.00
KXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-62000
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $630.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $630.00
KXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-63000
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $670.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $670.00
KXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-67000
Will BNB trimmed mean be above $660.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $660.00
KXBNBMAXY-BNB-26DEC31-66000
Analysis
This contract estimates an 80% probability that BNB's trimmed mean price will exceed $610 by year-end 2026, based on current market pricing. The high confidence reflects traders' expectations of sustained strength in the Binance token through December, though the 11% drop from the $600 threshold suggests meaningful uncertainty about further upside. Primary drivers include BNB's correlation with broader crypto market conditions, regulatory developments affecting Binance, and institutional adoption trends. The main uncertainty resolves through December 31, 2026, when the year-end average is calculated. Currently, markets price only an 11% chance of BNB reaching $640 by year-end, indicating traders expect consolidation rather than explosive growth from current levels. Trading volume remains modest across these contracts, which may affect price efficiency and create opportunities for informed positions.
- ›BNB traded near $610-$620 on July 23, 2026; the $610 contract at 80¢ implies markets see a 20% probability of year-end prices falling below this level
- ›A $30 spread between the $600 contract (91¢) and the $640 contract (11¢) shows conviction that BNB will settle in a narrow band rather than appreciate significantly over five months
- ›Binance regulatory status and any enforcement actions between July and December 2026 would materially impact BNB demand and network activity
- ›The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme daily values, reducing impact of flash crashes or manipulation, but still depends on actual December 2026 trading levels
- ›Crypto market-wide sentiment shifts, including Federal Reserve policy or institutional capital flows, would directly influence whether BNB maintains support above $610
What moved the line
- Jul 23Above $610.00↑12pp69→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Above $620.00↑3pp51→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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