Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$88K
11 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1235 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will Democrat”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P13
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 2
Will Democrat
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper
SENATENC-26-D
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes
KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Democratic party
SENATENC-28-D
Cluster 3
Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series
Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series?: North Carolina
KXNCAABASEBALL-26-UNC
Cluster 4
Who will win the North Carolina State Senate
Who will win the North Carolina State Senate?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-NCSEN26-R
Cluster 5
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina: Democratic
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina: Democratic
GOVPARTYNC-28-D
Analysis
This 34% probability reflects the aggregated market assessment of Boston Legacy FC's chances of winning against North Carolina Courage in an upcoming match. A notable 18-percentage-point gap exists between Polymarket (39%) and Kalshi (21%), suggesting disagreement about the teams' relative strength or match conditions. The North Carolina Courage contract on Kalshi sits at 35 cents, implying roughly 65% win probability for Courage, which aligns more closely with the Polymarket consensus. Resolution hinges on the actual match outcome, with trading volume concentrated in related soccer markets rather than this specific matchup, indicating moderate market interest. The low volume on some contracts ($0 in 24h activity) suggests limited recent information flow or late discovery of the market.
- ›Recent head-to-head record between Boston Legacy FC and North Carolina Courage, including goals scored and defensive metrics
- ›Current league standings, form trajectory, and injury reports for both teams as of April 2026
- ›The 18-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different liquidity pools or information access; Polymarket's higher probability (39%) correlates with higher trading volume ($1264 vs. $18)
- ›Over/Under market pricing (1.5 at 73¢, 2.5 at 46¢) suggests modest expected goal totals, which constrains upside for Boston Legacy FC
- ›Home vs. away designation and venue conditions; team performance splits by location could explain the significant inter-venue probability divergence
What moved the line
- Jun 14Democrats, 9+ pts↑36pp6→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20North Carolina↓18pp60→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21North Carolina↓12pp42→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15North Carolina↑11pp28→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18North Carolina↑9pp49→58¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 2d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 3d
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 3d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 3d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.