Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
10 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1232 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will Democrat”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P13
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Cluster 2
Will Democrat
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper
SENATENC-26-D
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes
KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Democratic party
SENATENC-28-D
Cluster 3
Who will win the North Carolina State Senate
Who will win the North Carolina State Senate?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-NCSEN26-R
Cluster 4
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina: Democratic
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina: Democratic
GOVPARTYNC-28-D
Analysis
This 45% probability reflects the estimated likelihood of a specific outcome in North Carolina's 2026 elections, based on aggregated market data from multiple contracts. The current assessment sits near the middle ground, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about Democratic performance in the state. The probability is primarily driven by polling data, historical voting patterns, and assessments of candidate viability. Factors pushing the probability higher include demographic trends and recent Democratic organizational efforts, while factors pushing it lower reflect North Carolina's competitive nature and Republican strengths in certain regions. The resolution of this uncertainty will depend on actual election results in November 2026, which represents the key catalyst that will determine the final outcome and eliminate remaining market speculation.
- ›Current polling averages in North Carolina compared to national Democratic performance trends
- ›Voter registration data and demographic shifts in key counties that have shown movement toward or away from Democratic candidates
- ›Candidate quality and campaign infrastructure, including fundraising and ground organization metrics
- ›Historical margin patterns in statewide North Carolina races over the past three election cycles
- ›Election date of November 2026 serves as the definitive resolution point when actual vote totals replace all probabilistic forecasting
What moved the line
- Jun 19Democrats, 9+ pts↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 11+ pts↓6pp36→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Yes↓5pp45→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 13+ pts↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Yes↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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