SimpleFunctions
11 source contracts·Kalshi 11·refreshed just now·Closes Nov 7, 2029 · 1235d

Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 11 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

43%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

43%

11 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$88K

11 contracts

Closes

Nov 7, 2029

1235 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 30% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 30% on 2026-06-21
Aggregate of 11 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 11 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will Democrat”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will the margin of victory

5 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Will Democrat

3 contracts$79

Cluster 3

Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$88K

Cluster 4

Who will win the North Carolina State Senate

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina: Democratic

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 34% probability reflects the aggregated market assessment of Boston Legacy FC's chances of winning against North Carolina Courage in an upcoming match. A notable 18-percentage-point gap exists between Polymarket (39%) and Kalshi (21%), suggesting disagreement about the teams' relative strength or match conditions. The North Carolina Courage contract on Kalshi sits at 35 cents, implying roughly 65% win probability for Courage, which aligns more closely with the Polymarket consensus. Resolution hinges on the actual match outcome, with trading volume concentrated in related soccer markets rather than this specific matchup, indicating moderate market interest. The low volume on some contracts ($0 in 24h activity) suggests limited recent information flow or late discovery of the market.

  • Recent head-to-head record between Boston Legacy FC and North Carolina Courage, including goals scored and defensive metrics
  • Current league standings, form trajectory, and injury reports for both teams as of April 2026
  • The 18-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different liquidity pools or information access; Polymarket's higher probability (39%) correlates with higher trading volume ($1264 vs. $18)
  • Over/Under market pricing (1.5 at 73¢, 2.5 at 46¢) suggests modest expected goal totals, which constrains upside for Boston Legacy FC
  • Home vs. away designation and venue conditions; team performance splits by location could explain the significant inter-venue probability divergence

What moved the line

  • Jun 14Democrats, 9+ pts36pp642¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 20North Carolina18pp6042¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 21North Carolina12pp4230¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 15North Carolina11pp2839¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 18North Carolina9pp4958¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.