Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
10 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1233 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will the margin of victory” vs “Will Democrat”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Democrats, 9+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P9
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 13 percentage points?: Democrats, 13+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P13
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 3 percentage points?: Republicans, 3+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P3
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSEND-P11
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 1 percentage points?: Republicans, 1+ pts
KXMIDTERMMOV-NCSENR-P1
Cluster 2
Will Democrat
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Roy Cooper
SENATENC-26-D
Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes
KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03
Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?: Democratic party
SENATENC-28-D
Cluster 3
Who will win the North Carolina State Senate
Who will win the North Carolina State Senate?: Republican party
KXSTATELEG-NCSEN26-R
Cluster 4
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina: Democratic
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in North Carolina: Democratic
GOVPARTYNC-28-D
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market assessment of Democratic performance in North Carolina's 2026 Senate race, positioned at 45% based on aggregated contract pricing. The market is pricing in competitive dynamics in a state that has become increasingly contested between parties. Key drivers of this probability include candidate quality and name recognition—particularly Roy Cooper's strong positioning at 85 cents suggests market confidence in the Democratic nominee—as well as broader national political momentum heading into the election cycle. Turnout patterns and suburban voter preferences in North Carolina will likely prove decisive. The primary elections and candidate nominations will serve as critical checkpoints, with the general election campaign intensity ramping up through fall 2026. Resolution will depend on actual vote tallies in November 2026.
- ›Roy Cooper Senate contract prices at 85¢ indicate high market confidence in the Democratic nominee's viability compared to the lower 45¢ aggregate probability
- ›Margin-of-victory contracts show sharp probability drops (30¢ for 11+ points, 24¢ for 13+ points), suggesting markets expect a close race rather than a decisive outcome
- ›The 37¢ probability on Democrats winning Senate seats in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina AND Maine indicates the market views a North Carolina Democratic win as less likely than the 45% standalone figure, reflecting competitive headwinds
- ›Democratic gubernatorial contract at 65¢ shows higher confidence in state-level Democratic performance than Senate performance, suggesting candidate-specific or race-specific factors are suppressing Senate odds
- ›24-hour trading volumes are minimal on margin contracts and near-zero on some positions, indicating limited recent price discovery and potential for significant repricing as election approaches
What moved the line
- Jun 19Democrats, 9+ pts↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 11+ pts↓6pp36→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Yes↓5pp45→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Democrats, 13+ pts↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Yes↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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