Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units
Leader sits at 96% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 950 units
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 1,100 units
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2027
251 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 950 units?: Above 950 units
KXBOZPERMITS-27MAY31-T950
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,700 units?: Above 1,700 units
KXBOZPERMITS-27MAY31-T1700
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,550 units?: Above 1,550 units
KXBOZPERMITS-27MAY31-T1550
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units?: Above 1,400 units
KXBOZPERMITS-27MAY31-T1400
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,250 units?: Above 1,250 units
KXBOZPERMITS-27MAY31-T1250
Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,100 units?: Above 1,100 units
KXBOZPERMITS-27MAY31-T1100
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 86% chance that Bozeman, Montana's building permit authorizations for new housing will exceed 1,100 units in 2026, with notably lower probabilities for higher thresholds (21% for 1,400+ units). This reflects expectations around regional housing demand, construction capacity, and local permitting trends in a market that has experienced significant growth pressure. The probability is driven by recent construction activity levels and typical seasonal variation in permit issuance, balanced against potential supply constraints or economic headwinds that could dampen building activity. Resolution depends on final 2026 permit data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, typically released in early 2027, which will show the actual count of residential units authorized across the Bozeman CBSA during the calendar year.
- ›Year-to-date 2026 permit authorizations through mid-August compared to full-year historical averages for the Bozeman CBSA
- ›Recent annual housing permit volume trends in the region—whether 2023-2025 averaged above or below 1,100-1,400 unit thresholds
- ›Inventory of approved but not-yet-permitted projects and typical seasonal concentration of permit issuance in Bozeman-area jurisdictions
- ›Economic indicators affecting regional construction: mortgage rates, lending standards, and employment growth in the Bozeman area
- ›Local zoning or permitting policy changes implemented in 2026 that would accelerate or constrain new residential authorizations
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 1,400 units↓12pp35→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 1,250 units↓7pp79→72¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 1,550 units↓4pp14→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 1,700 units↓4pp7→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above 1,550 units↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 3d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 4d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 9d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 9d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.