SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Aug 9, 2026 · 17d

Will both teams score

Leader sits at 46% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

46%

Both Teams To Score

runner-up 45¢leader 46¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

45¢

Both Teams To Score

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Aug 9, 2026

17 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBoth Teams To Score: 29% (5 days, 5 points)Both Teams To Score: 29% on 2026-07-23Both Teams To Score: 44% (5 days, 5 points)Both Teams To Score: 44% on 2026-07-23Both Teams To Score: 6% (5 days, 5 points)Both Teams To Score: 6% on 2026-07-23
Both Teams To Score29¢Both Teams To Score44¢Both Teams To Score6¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 5d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal in an upcoming match. The current 50% estimate is derived from multiple Kalshi contracts, though individual contract prices range from 35¢ to 51¢, indicating meaningful disagreement among traders. The probability depends primarily on the defensive capabilities of each team and recent scoring patterns, with stronger defenses and lower-scoring teams making both-teams-to-score outcomes less likely. Major factors that could shift this probability include team lineups (particularly availability of key attacking or defensive players), weather conditions, and the specific matchup dynamics. Once the match concludes, the outcome becomes definitively known based on whether each team scores at least once during regulation play.

  • Historical scoring frequency for each team this season, including percentage of matches where they both scored and conceded
  • Quality and recent form of each team's defense, particularly goals conceded per match over the last 5-10 games
  • Availability of key attacking players for both teams, as injuries or suspensions significantly affect scoring likelihood
  • Head-to-head history between these specific teams, if applicable, showing scoring patterns in previous matchups
  • Current league-wide average for both-teams-to-score outcomes as a baseline comparison for this specific matchup

What moved the line

  • Jul 23Both Teams To Score32pp1244¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 23Both Teams To Score14pp2236¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Both Teams To Score8pp1927¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Both Teams To Score5pp1217¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 22Both Teams To Score5pp1722¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.