Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
46 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026
Analysis
This market measures whether Justice Democrats-endorsed candidates will win more than 3 federal primary elections in contests held on or after June 25, 2026. Currently priced at 61%, the probability reflects moderate confidence in multiple primary victories. The outcomes become increasingly unlikely at higher thresholds: above 4 at 32%, above 6 at 17%, and above 7 at just 7%. Justice Democrats' track record in recent cycles, candidate quality in targeted races, and turnout patterns in late-June primaries will determine success rates. The resolution depends entirely on primary results across multiple states through the election calendar's completion, with outcomes becoming clearer as specific primary dates arrive and results are reported.
- ›Justice Democrats' historical primary win rate and endorsement hit rate in 2024 and prior cycles establishes a baseline expectation for 2026 performance
- ›Number of viable Justice Democrats-endorsed candidates actually competing in primaries scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 directly constrains the maximum possible wins
- ›Turnout levels and demographic composition in late-June primaries differ from earlier contests, potentially favoring or hindering progressive candidates
- ›Margin pricing (61% for >3, 32% for >4, 17% for >6, 7% for >7) suggests most contract holders expect 4-5 total wins rather than substantially higher numbers
- ›Concentration of remaining June primaries in specific states or district types will determine whether endorsed candidates face favorable or unfavorable matchups
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%last 97% · 1d
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 1d
- Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 46% · 2d
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral electionlast 82% · 2d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (16% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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