Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral election
Leader sits at 82% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
David Morales
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Brett Smiley
Spread
78pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$28K
liquid
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
411 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral election
Analysis
This probability indicates that David Morales has a modest edge over Brett Smiley in the race for Providence mayor, with the outcome genuinely uncertain. The 49% price reflects a competitive two-candidate contest where voting patterns, turnout, and campaign performance will determine the winner. Providence's political dynamics, voter demographics in key neighborhoods, and ground organization are driving current assessments. The election is scheduled for November 2026, providing months for campaign momentum shifts, endorsements, and voter sentiment changes to move the needle. Historical Providence mayoral races show sensitivity to local issues like school funding, municipal services, and neighborhood priorities, all of which remain in flux at this stage of the race.
- ›Election date is November 2026, approximately five months away, leaving substantial time for campaign developments and voter preference shifts
- ›Current pricing shows a narrow 2-percentage-point separation between the two leading candidates, indicating genuine competitive uncertainty rather than a clear frontrunner
- ›Providence mayoral elections are influenced by ward-specific voting patterns and neighborhood priorities, which can shift based on candidate positioning on local issues
- ›Early-stage market pricing may reflect limited information or trading volume, as suggested by zero 24-hour trading volume on both contracts
- ›Voter turnout in municipal elections is often lower and more concentrated among specific demographics than statewide races, making ground organization and local mobilization critical differentiators
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (82% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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