Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
Above 4
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
116 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 10
KXDSAWINS-26NOV03-A10
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 8 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 8
KXDSAWINS-26NOV03-A8
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 6
KXDSAWINS-26NOV03-A6
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 4
KXDSAWINS-26NOV03-A4
Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 2 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 2
KXDSAWINS-26NOV03-A2
Analysis
This market measures whether Democratic Socialists of America-endorsed candidates will win more than 2 federal primary elections scheduled after June 25, 2026. The 85% probability reflects high confidence in this threshold based on DSA's demonstrated ability to elect members to federal office in recent election cycles. The main driver of this elevated probability is DSA's track record: the organization has successfully backed candidates in House races, particularly in New York and other urban districts with favorable demographics. However, the steep price drop at higher thresholds (35% for above 4, 10% for above 10) suggests meaningful uncertainty about sustained success across multiple races. The decisive factor will be primary results through the fall 2026 election cycle, which will determine whether DSA-backed candidates can achieve wins across diverse geographic and competitive contexts.
- ›DSA has elected at least 3 members to the U.S. House since 2018 (Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib, Omar), establishing a baseline of primary-winning capacity
- ›2026 primaries occur unevenly across states; outcomes depend on which districts hold competitive races and field DSA-backed challengers
- ›The organization's endorsement footprint is concentrated in urban districts with specific demographic profiles; expanding beyond these areas historically proves more difficult
- ›Incumbent protection dynamics in Democratic primaries typically disadvantage outside challengers, limiting opportunities for DSA candidates to unseat sitting members
- ›Late June scheduling means most federal primaries remain unscheduled; final answer depends entirely on race outcomes across August-September 2026 primary elections
What moved the line
- Jul 4Above 4↑6pp77→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Above 4↑5pp83→88¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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