Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.50%
Leader sits at 97% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.75%
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
Above 5.00%
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$249
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
194 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.75%?: Above 5.75%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T5.75
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.25%?: Above 5.25%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T5.25
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 4.75%?: Above 4.75%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T4.75
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 6.50%?: Above 6.50%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T6.50
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 6.25%?: Above 6.25%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T6.25
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 6.75%?: Above 6.75%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T6.75
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 6.00%?: Above 6.00%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T6.00
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.50%?: Above 5.50%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T5.50
Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.00%?: Above 5.00%
KXBRINFHIGH-27JAN01-T5.00
Analysis
The probability reflects market expectations that Brazil's inflation rate will exceed 4.50% over the next six months, with declining confidence at higher thresholds. Markets currently price in very high certainty (96%) that inflation stays above 4.50%, moderate confidence (94%) above 4.75%, and substantially lower conviction above 5.50%. Inflation trajectories are driven by monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank, currency depreciation effects on import costs, and domestic demand pressures. The Central Bank's interest rate decisions and inflation data releases through year-end 2026 will be critical in determining whether inflation accelerates beyond current forecasts or moderates toward the 4.50% threshold that most traders expect to be breached.
- ›Current year-to-date Brazilian inflation and the Central Bank's stated inflation target corridor for 2026-2027
- ›Recent Central Bank interest rate decisions and forward guidance on policy rates through end of 2026
- ›Brazilian real exchange rate movements and their historical correlation with imported inflation
- ›Central Bank inflation forecast revisions from official monetary policy reports
- ›Distance between current official inflation data and the 4.50%, 4.75%, and 5.50% contract thresholds
What moved the line
- Jun 20Above 5.75%↓34pp51→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Above 5.75%↑13pp38→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Above 5.50%↑13pp40→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Above 5.25%↓11pp57→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 5.75%↓8pp17→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 28% · 0d
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 2.5%+last 49% · 2d
- South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?: 4.0–4.4%last 42% · 2d
- Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.3%+last 54% · 2d
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 4.6-4.9%last 69% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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