Will Left Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Sep 18, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Centre Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that Sweden's Left Party will finish with the seventh-highest vote share in the 2026 Riksdag election. The 16% probability suggests markets view the Left Party as a credible but not leading contender for this specific ranking. Multiple parties cluster around similar vote-share levels—Centre Party, Green Party, and Christian Democrats each trade at 23%—indicating genuine uncertainty about which smaller parties will occupy mid-tier positions. The outcome depends heavily on actual voter turnout, campaign dynamics in the final weeks before the election, and whether any smaller parties experience unexpected polling shifts. The Swedish Election Authority will determine final vote shares once voting concludes on election day in September 2026, settling all related markets.
- ›Left Party's recent polling trend versus competitors: Centre Party, Greens, and Christian Democrats currently show slightly higher market probabilities, suggesting they poll marginally ahead
- ›Vote-share volatility among parties ranked 5th-8th: Small shifts in any party's support could alter which party places seventh, making the outcome sensitive to campaign developments
- ›Turnout composition and voter mobilization: Changes in which demographic groups vote at higher rates can significantly impact smaller parties' final vote shares
- ›Recent Left Party election performance and historical benchmarks: Their standing relative to 2022 Riksdag results provides context for whether 16% represents an underestimate or overestimate
- ›Election date catalyst: Final results will be published by the Swedish Election Authority in September 2026, providing definitive resolution of vote-share rankings
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (13% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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