Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 62% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
62%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 3, 2028
774 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 2
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Renan Santos qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This probability indicates a 36% chance that Flavio Bolsonaro will advance to the runoff round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, where the top two finishers compete in a second round. The market reflects competitive uncertainty about his standing among right-wing candidates and his viability relative to other potential contestants. The main factors influencing this estimate are Flavio's current polling position within the right-wing political space, competition from other center-right and conservative candidates, and any legal or political developments affecting his candidacy. The election's first round, scheduled for October 2026, will definitively determine whether he finishes in the top two and qualifies for the runoff. Current uncertainty hinges on voter preference consolidation among non-left candidates and whether frontrunners Lula (priced at 93%) and other challengers fragment the vote.
- ›Flavio Bolsonaro's standing in recent public opinion polls relative to other right-wing and center-right candidates competing for the non-left vote
- ›Legal or electoral barriers that could disqualify him from running, given the Bolsonaro family's history with judiciary decisions
- ›Vote fragmentation among conservative and center-right candidates, which determines whether any single right-wing candidate reaches the runoff
- ›Comparison with related contract prices showing Lula at 93% and other conservative candidates ranging from 7-16%, establishing Flavio's relative competitiveness
- ›Schedule of major campaign events, debates, and polling releases between now and the October 2026 first-round election
What moved the line
- Aug 18Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↑13pp34→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Flavio Bolsonaro↑5pp80→85¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Flavio Bolsonaro↑4pp87→91¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Flavio Bolsonaro↑3pp84→87¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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