Will Brent Bien be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 65% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
65%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$131K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
75 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Eric Barlow be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming
Will Eric Barlow be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?: Eric Barlow
KXGOVWYNOMR-26-EBAR
Cluster 2
Will Megan Degenfelder be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming
Will Megan Degenfelder be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?: Megan Degenfelder
KXGOVWYNOMR-26-MDEG
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Brent Bien wins the Republican primary for Wyoming Governor. At 30%, the market suggests he has a meaningful but not favored chance compared to Megan Degenfelder, who trades at 78%. The current assessment likely reflects Bien's standing in state Republican circles, any recent polling data, fundraising levels, and perceived viability among Wyoming voters. Factors that could shift this probability include changes in candidate endorsements from state party leadership, primary election results from similar contests, shifts in campaign funding, or new public statements affecting candidate positioning. The Republican primary election itself will ultimately resolve this market, with the exact date depending on Wyoming's election calendar. Until then, movement in this probability depends on indicators of candidate strength within the party base and electability perceptions among Republican primary voters.
- ›Degenfelder's 78¢ price suggests clear market preference, leaving Bien at meaningful but secondary positioning
- ›Volume on Bien's contract ($483 in 24h) is lower than Degenfelder's ($1085), potentially indicating less certainty or interest from traders
- ›Fundraising reports, endorsement announcements from Wyoming Republican leadership, and any public polling would directly impact the probability
- ›Primary election results from early candidate events or straw polls could signal candidate momentum and shift market expectations
- ›The date of Wyoming's Republican primary election is the scheduled event that will fully resolve this contract
What moved the line
- Aug 17Megan Degenfelder↓5pp22→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Megan Degenfelder↑4pp18→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Eric Barlow↑3pp77→80¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (65% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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