Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary
Leader sits at 48% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Donalds, Collins, Fishback
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Donalds, Fishback, Collins
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$951
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
376 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?: Donalds, Collins, Renner
KXFLRGOVEXACT-26AUG18-DON-COL-REN
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?: Donalds, Fishback, Renner
KXFLRGOVEXACT-26AUG18-DON-FIS-REN
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?: Donalds, Fishback, Collins
KXFLRGOVEXACT-26AUG18-DON-FIS-COL
Will the exact finishing order be in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?: Donalds, Collins, Fishback
KXFLRGOVEXACT-26AUG18-DON-COL-FIS
Analysis
This represents the probability that Donalds, Collins, and Fishback finish in that exact order in Florida's 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary. The 30% probability for this specific sequence reflects that while Donalds appears positioned as the frontrunner, the second and third finishers remain uncertain among multiple candidates. The exact finishing order depends on candidate momentum shifts, turnout patterns, and potential consolidation among the field in the weeks before voting. Results will materialize when Florida holds its Republican primary election. The relatively fragmented pricing across different three-candidate combinations suggests traders view multiple plausible finishes as competitive rather than strongly favoring any single outcome.
- ›Donalds appears consistently priced as the likely first-place finisher across all top contracts, but alternative second and third-place finishers carry comparable probabilities (21% for one specific ordering)
- ›The top five contracts span multiple candidates in positions two and three, indicating substantial uncertainty about who consolidates support beyond the frontrunner
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in two contracts (Donalds-Collins-Renner at $1,159 and Donalds-Collins-Fishback at $1,127), suggesting these two orderings are seen as most competitive
- ›No single non-leading ordering exceeds 21%, meaning the 30% leader holds only a modest edge over its closest competitor
- ›The timing suggests limited time remains for candidate positioning, endorsements, or debate performance to shift the perceived finishing order
What moved the line
- Aug 2Donalds, Fishback, Collins↓20pp27→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Donalds, Fishback, Renner↓18pp19→1¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Donalds, Fishback, Collins↓17pp44→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Donalds, Fishback, Collins↑13pp7→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Donalds, Collins, Fishback↑9pp31→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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