Will Proposition 38 pass
Leader sits at 79% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 58%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Proposition 1
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
58¢
Proposition 5
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
408 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Proposition
Will Proposition 1 pass?: Proposition 1
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR01
Will Proposition 45 pass?: Proposition 45
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR45
Will Proposition 44 pass?: Proposition 44
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR44
Will Proposition 43 pass?: Proposition 43
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR43
Will Proposition 41 pass?: Proposition 41
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR41
Will Proposition 39 pass?: Proposition 39
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR39
Will Proposition 38 pass?: Proposition 38
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR38
Will Proposition 37 pass?: Proposition 37
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR37
Will Proposition 5 pass?: Proposition 5
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR05
Will Proposition 4 pass?: Proposition 4
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR04
Will Proposition 3 pass?: Proposition 3
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR03
Will Proposition 2 pass?: Proposition 2
KXCABALLOTMEASURES-26NOV03-PR02
Analysis
Proposition 38 is currently priced at 61 cents on prediction markets, indicating that traders assess a roughly 61% probability of passage. This reflects moderate confidence compared to other propositions in the same ballot measure set, where Proposition 2 leads at 73%. The pricing suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether the measure will clear the threshold needed for passage. Key drivers of the current probability likely include recent polling data, campaign funding levels, and demographic composition of likely voters. Resolution will occur on election day when official vote counts determine passage. Markets may adjust significantly if new polling emerges, major campaign developments occur, or turnout models shift based on early voting data.
- ›Current Kalshi contract price of 61¢ represents substantially lower confidence than the leading proposition (73¢), suggesting relative weakness among this ballot measure
- ›24-hour trading volume of $39 on this contract is low compared to Proposition 45 ($741), indicating limited recent trader attention or consensus
- ›Proposition 38's pricing sits between more popular measures (Prop 2 at 73¢, Prop 1 at 49¢), placing it in mid-tier likelihood within the same ballot cycle
- ›Resolution depends on official election results; shifts would likely occur if new polling data releases or voter turnout models change materially before election day
- ›The multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means this contract's value is directly contingent on the specific proposition passing, not relative performance
What moved the line
- Sep 19Proposition 3↓44pp67→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Proposition 4↑33pp4→37¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Proposition 41↓33pp36→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Proposition 43↑26pp9→35¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Proposition 45↓26pp43→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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