Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97 million available lower berth days in 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 97.1 million
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Above 97.2 million
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$134
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 31, 2028
642 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 9
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.4 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.4 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97400000.0
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 98.2 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 98.2 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-98200000.0
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.8 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.8 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97800000.0
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.7 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.7 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97700000.0
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.6 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.6 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97600000.0
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.5 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.5 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97500000.0
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.3 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.3 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97300000.0
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.2 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.2 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97200000.0
Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97.1 million available lower berth days in 2026?: Above 97.1 million
KXCCLA-28JANALBD-97100000.0
Analysis
This probability reflects market confidence that Carnival Corporation will report at least 97.1 million available lower berth days in 2026. Available berth capacity is a key metric for cruise operators, directly tied to fleet size, deployment schedules, and operational availability. The 93% probability suggests strong market expectation the company will meet or exceed this threshold. The assessment hinges on whether Carnival maintains expected fleet capacity throughout the year—including any ship deployments, dry-dock schedules, or unexpected outages—and whether management's guidance holds when 2026 full-year results are released. Contract pricing shows declining confidence at higher thresholds (74% for 97.3M, 43% for 97.4M), indicating uncertainty about capacity reaching the upper end. Resolution depends on Carnival's audited financial reporting disclosing actual berth-day figures, likely in early 2027.
- ›Carnival's current fleet size and any scheduled ship additions or retirements during 2026
- ›Planned dry-dock maintenance schedules and their impact on available capacity days
- ›Management guidance issued in recent earnings calls regarding 2026 capacity expectations
- ›Historical variance between Carnival's capacity projections and actual reported results
- ›Industry-wide demand pressures and competitive deployments that might affect utilization rates
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above 97.4 million↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 97.3 million↑3pp77→80¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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