Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.65 million active customers in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 21.6 million
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 21.625 million
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
119 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21
Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.7 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.7 million
KXCHWY-26SEPACTIVECUST-21700000.0
Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.675 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.675 million
KXCHWY-26SEPACTIVECUST-21675000.0
Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.75 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.75 million
KXCHWY-26SEPACTIVECUST-21750000.0
Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.65 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.65 million
KXCHWY-26SEPACTIVECUST-21650000.0
Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.6 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.6 million
KXCHWY-26SEPACTIVECUST-21600000.0
Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.725 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.725 million
KXCHWY-26SEPACTIVECUST-21725000.0
Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.625 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.625 million
KXCHWY-26SEPACTIVECUST-21625000.0
Analysis
This contract asks whether Chewy will report more than 21.65 million active customers in their second quarter of 2026. The 64% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome occurring. Chewy's customer base has grown steadily, but the specific threshold of 21.65 million represents meaningful growth from recent quarters. The key driver is Chewy's actual Q2 2026 earnings report, which will provide definitive active customer metrics. Market participants appear to view higher thresholds (21.7 million) as unlikely while considering baseline growth (21.6 million) highly probable. Uncertainty centers on whether growth will accelerate beyond historical trends or whether adoption rates stabilize. The resolution depends entirely on Chewy's official quarterly filing and how the company calculates and reports active customer counts, typically released in early August 2026.
- ›Chewy's historical customer growth rate trend through 2025-2026 relative to reaching 21.65 million by Q2
- ›Competitive pressures and market saturation in pet e-commerce affecting customer acquisition velocity
- ›Chewy's Q2 2026 earnings release date and official active customer metric disclosure
- ›Definition consistency: whether Chewy's active customer calculation methodology remains unchanged quarter-over-quarter
- ›Broader pet care spending patterns and e-commerce adoption rates in the reported period
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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