SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Sep 10, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·7 source contracts·Kalshi 7·closed just now·Closes Jan 7, 2027 · 119d

Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.65 million active customers in Q2 2026

Leader sits at 97% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

97%

Above 21.6 million

runner-up 88¢leader 97¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

88¢

Above 21.625 million

Spread

9pp

contested

24h volume

$5K

modest

Closes

Jan 7, 2027

119 days

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove 21.6 million: 97% (18 days, 15 points)Above 21.6 million: 97% on 2026-09-09Above 21.625 million: 86% (18 days, 16 points)Above 21.625 million: 86% on 2026-09-06Above 21.65 million: 71% (18 days, 16 points)Above 21.65 million: 71% on 2026-09-09
Above 21.6 million97¢Above 21.625 million86¢Above 21.65 million71¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 18d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract asks whether Chewy will report more than 21.65 million active customers in their second quarter of 2026. The 64% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome occurring. Chewy's customer base has grown steadily, but the specific threshold of 21.65 million represents meaningful growth from recent quarters. The key driver is Chewy's actual Q2 2026 earnings report, which will provide definitive active customer metrics. Market participants appear to view higher thresholds (21.7 million) as unlikely while considering baseline growth (21.6 million) highly probable. Uncertainty centers on whether growth will accelerate beyond historical trends or whether adoption rates stabilize. The resolution depends entirely on Chewy's official quarterly filing and how the company calculates and reports active customer counts, typically released in early August 2026.

  • Chewy's historical customer growth rate trend through 2025-2026 relative to reaching 21.65 million by Q2
  • Competitive pressures and market saturation in pet e-commerce affecting customer acquisition velocity
  • Chewy's Q2 2026 earnings release date and official active customer metric disclosure
  • Definition consistency: whether Chewy's active customer calculation methodology remains unchanged quarter-over-quarter
  • Broader pet care spending patterns and e-commerce adoption rates in the reported period

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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