Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Sep 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This 13% probability reflects a low likelihood that Anthropic will release an Opus 6 model before September 1, 2026—roughly two and a half weeks from today. The low pricing reflects the tight timeframe combined with Anthropic's typical development cadence; Opus 5 has been their leading model for over a year, suggesting longer intervals between major releases. The probability would move significantly based on any official Anthropic announcement or credible reporting about an imminent Opus 6 launch. The main catalyst for resolution is whether Anthropic makes a public release or announcement by September 1st. If the date passes without release, markets would likely reprice toward later October or November deadlines, where contract prices currently range from 3% to 12%, suggesting most traders expect a later 2026 launch if one occurs at all.

• ›Anthropic has not announced or hinted at an Opus 6 release date; lack of pre-announcement communication historically precedes major releases by weeks
• ›The current timeframe (August 13 to September 1) is only 19 days, which is unusually short for a major model launch cycle in Anthropic's historical pattern
• ›Contract prices rise substantially for October and November deadlines (10-12%), indicating market consensus expects a later release, not early September
• ›Kalshi contract volumes are highest for the November and October 16 dates ($1,653 and $973 respectively), suggesting traders view those as more probable outcomes
• ›No credible news reports or industry indicators as of mid-August 2026 suggest an imminent Opus 6 announcement

What moved the line

• Aug 31Before Sep 16, 2026↓50pp51→1¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 30Before Sep 16, 2026↑45pp6→51¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 2Before Sep 16, 2026↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 2Before Oct 16, 2026↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 4Before Oct 16, 2026↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds