Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Leader sits at 78% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mike Vrabel
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Josh McDaniels
Spread
66pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$12K
liquid
Closes
Oct 20, 2026
170 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-MVRA
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Josh McDaniels
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-JMCD
Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Thomas Brown
KXCOACHONDATE-NE26-TBRO
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects the likelihood that someone other than Mike Vrabel (currently priced at 77%) becomes the New England Patriots head coach by Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. The low probability suggests the market views Vrabel as the heavily favored candidate, though alternatives remain possible. The main factors keeping this probability elevated are uncertainties around Vrabel's final contract negotiations, potential late-stage changes in the team's organizational direction, and the possibility of unexpected candidate availability. The critical resolution point will be the official announcement of New England's head coach hire, which typically occurs in January or early February before the new season begins.
- ›Mike Vrabel's contract negotiations with the Patriots and whether he formally accepts or declines the position
- ›Emergence of unexpected coaching candidates becoming available due to playoff eliminations or NFL organizational changes
- ›New England's ownership or front office making a last-minute change in coaching direction or hiring preference
- ›The timeline of when the official announcement occurs relative to the start of Week 1 in September 2026
- ›Competitive bidding from other NFL teams that might acquire alternative candidates before the Patriots finalize their hire
What moved the line
- Apr 28Mike Vrabel↑8pp68→76¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Josh McDaniels↓8pp22→14¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Mike Vrabel↓7pp71→64¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Mike Vrabel↓7pp76→69¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Mike Vrabel↑6pp69→75¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.