Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15%

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract estimates a 16% chance that Abelardo de la Espriella wins the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff by a margin between 12% and 15 percentage points. The market is currently pricing de la Espriella's most likely margin at 6–9%, with modest spillover probability into the 12–15% band. De la Espriella's lead depends on campaign momentum, voter consolidation in the runoff, and whether opposition voters coalesce around the runner-up. The main scenario driving higher probability in this band would be stronger-than-expected turnout among his base or significant defection from the alternative candidate. The runoff itself—scheduled for June 2026—will settle the outcome, with final vote tallies determining the exact margin. Liquidity is minimal on this specific contract, suggesting limited trading activity despite the nearby election date.

• ›De la Espriella's support ceiling: whether primary voters convert to runoff turnout at expected rates or defect to the alternative candidate
• ›Opposition consolidation: whether Iván Cepeda's voters migrate cohesively to the runoff alternative or fragment
• ›Turnout differential: changes in voter mobilization between de la Espriella's coalition and the runner-up's base
• ›Polling convergence: the gap between current polling and actual runoff vote share narrows significantly in the final weeks
• ›Runoff date and official vote count: Colombian electoral authority certification in June 2026 will definitively resolve all margin bands

What moved the line

• Jun 19Abelardo de la Espriella, 6-9%↓13pp40→27¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Iván Cepeda, ≥15%↑10pp4→14¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 17Abelardo de la Espriella, 6-9%↑8pp39→47¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Abelardo de la Espriella, 6-9%↓7pp47→40¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Iván Cepeda, 0-3%↑7pp3→10¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds