Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.4%
Leader sits at 90% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.8%
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Above 4.0%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
67 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.8%?: Above 3.8%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T3.8
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 5.4%?: Above 5.4%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T5.4
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 5.2%?: Above 5.2%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T5.2
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 5.0%?: Above 5.0%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T5.0
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.8%?: Above 4.8%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.8
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.6%?: Above 4.6%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.6
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.4%?: Above 4.4%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.4
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.2%?: Above 4.2%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.2
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.0%?: Above 4.0%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.0
Analysis
This market estimates a 45% chance that China's year-over-year GDP growth will exceed 3.4% in the second quarter of 2026. China's recent growth trajectory and policy responses will be primary drivers: stronger-than-expected domestic consumption or investment could push probabilities higher, while external headwinds or domestic credit contraction could lower them. The resolution depends on China's official GDP announcement for Q2 2026, typically released in mid-July. Market uncertainty reflects ongoing debates about the sustainability of China's growth momentum amid structural economic challenges and global trade dynamics. The current 45% probability suggests roughly even odds between exceeding and falling short of the 3.4% threshold, indicating meaningful disagreement among traders about near-term economic momentum.
- ›China's Q1 2026 GDP growth rate and official statistics released prior to Q2 final figures will establish the baseline trend
- ›Real estate sector performance and credit dynamics in the first half of 2026, including property sales and investment levels
- ›External factors including global trade conditions, export demand, and any trade policy changes affecting Chinese manufacturing and exports
- ›Domestic consumption indicators such as retail sales growth and services activity in Q2 relative to historical seasonal patterns
- ›Comparison to analyst consensus forecasts and prior official guidance from Chinese economic authorities on full-year growth targets
What moved the line
- May 6Above 4.8%↑3pp33→36¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in Aprillast 97% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?last 3% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.