Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.4%
Leader sits at 74% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.2%
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Above 4.4%
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$17
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 15, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.2%?: Above 4.2%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.2
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.4%?: Above 4.4%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.4
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.8%?: Above 4.8%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.8
Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 4.6%?: Above 4.6%
KXCHGDPYOY-26JUL15-T4.6
Analysis
Markets currently expect China's year-over-year GDP growth for Q2 2026 to exceed 4.2% with 79% confidence, based on Kalshi trading activity. This reflects expectations about whether China's economy will maintain moderate growth momentum through mid-2026. The probability hinges on China's policy stimulus levels, global demand conditions, and domestic consumption patterns. The resolution depends on China's National Bureau of Statistics releasing the official Q2 2026 GDP figure, typically announced in mid-July. Contract pricing shows declining confidence in higher growth thresholds: only 28% probability for growth above 4.6%, suggesting traders expect growth in the 4.2-4.6% range rather than significantly higher. Key factors include recent property sector trends, monetary policy decisions, and export demand amid global economic conditions.
- ›China's official Q2 2026 YoY GDP growth rate will be compared directly to 4.2% threshold when released by the National Bureau of Statistics
- ›Recent quarterly growth trends through Q1 2026 and any stimulus or monetary policy adjustments announced in early 2026
- ›Global trade volumes and export demand conditions in H1 2026, particularly from developed economies
- ›Domestic consumption and property sector stability, which are primary growth drivers in recent years
- ›The gap between market expectations (4.2-4.6% range) and higher growth scenarios (above 4.8%) suggests uncertainty about policy effectiveness
Recently closed in recession
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 30% · 3d
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 39% · 4d
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 21d
- Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 21d
- Will the tariff rate on Canada imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 93% · 21d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.