Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve's 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield will shift by at least 10 basis points between July 28 and July 29, 2026. Daily moves of this magnitude are historically uncommon in Treasury yields outside of major economic announcements or policy shifts. The market is pricing in moderate expectations for volatility during this specific window. The resolution depends on actual Federal Reserve data releases and any scheduled economic indicators published on or before July 29. Key drivers include whether the Fed issues policy communications, inflation reports, or employment data between these dates that could trigger significant market repricing. The low trading volume suggests limited market participation, which may reflect uncertainty about the timing and nature of potential catalysts rather than consensus conviction.

• ›Historical daily moves in 2-year Treasury yields exceed 10bps in roughly 5-15% of trading days absent major announcements, providing a baseline frequency reference
• ›The 1-week window (July 28-29) falls before typical month-end positioning and re-hedging flows that often concentrate volatility
• ›Contract pricing shows declining probability as thresholds increase (60% at 10bps, 29% at 12bps, 13% at 15bps), indicating markets view large moves as plausible but not likely
• ›Zero 24-hour volume on Kalshi contracts suggests minimal speculative positioning, reducing the probability of coordinated trading-driven moves
• ›Any unscheduled Fed communications, inflation surprises, or geopolitical shocks would be the primary mechanism for achieving 10bps+ moves within a single trading day

What moved the line

• Jun 23At least 12bps↑29pp40→69¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23At least 15bps↑25pp14→39¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23At least 18bps↑23pp11→34¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23At least 6bps↑17pp72→89¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23At least 10bps↑15pp72→87¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds