Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps
Leader sits at 70% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 62%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 6bps
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
62¢
At least 8bps
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$108
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 4bps?: At least 4bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T4
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps?: At least 12bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T12
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 8bps?: At least 8bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T8
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 6bps?: At least 6bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T6
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 30bps?: At least 30bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T30
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 20bps?: At least 20bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T20
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 18bps?: At least 18bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T18
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 15bps?: At least 15bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T15
Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps?: At least 10bps
KX2YFOMC-26JUL29-T10
Analysis
This market estimates a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve's 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield will shift by at least 10 basis points between July 28 and July 29, 2026. Daily moves of this magnitude are historically uncommon in Treasury yields outside of major economic announcements or policy shifts. The market is pricing in moderate expectations for volatility during this specific window. The resolution depends on actual Federal Reserve data releases and any scheduled economic indicators published on or before July 29. Key drivers include whether the Fed issues policy communications, inflation reports, or employment data between these dates that could trigger significant market repricing. The low trading volume suggests limited market participation, which may reflect uncertainty about the timing and nature of potential catalysts rather than consensus conviction.
- ›Historical daily moves in 2-year Treasury yields exceed 10bps in roughly 5-15% of trading days absent major announcements, providing a baseline frequency reference
- ›The 1-week window (July 28-29) falls before typical month-end positioning and re-hedging flows that often concentrate volatility
- ›Contract pricing shows declining probability as thresholds increase (60% at 10bps, 29% at 12bps, 13% at 15bps), indicating markets view large moves as plausible but not likely
- ›Zero 24-hour volume on Kalshi contracts suggests minimal speculative positioning, reducing the probability of coordinated trading-driven moves
- ›Any unscheduled Fed communications, inflation surprises, or geopolitical shocks would be the primary mechanism for achieving 10bps+ moves within a single trading day
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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