Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026
Leader sits at 73% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Becomes law without signature
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Signed
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026?: Becomes law without signature
KXROADOUTCOME-26-NOSIG
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Donald Trump signs the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act into law before Jul 14, 2026?: Signed
KXROADOUTCOME-26-SIGN
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Donald Trump vetoes the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act before Jul 14, 2026?: Vetoed
KXROADOUTCOME-26-VETO
Analysis
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act has a 73% probability of becoming law without Donald Trump's signature before July 14, 2026. This outcome occurs when Congress passes legislation with enough votes to override a presidential veto or when the bill becomes law through a pocket veto process. The high probability reflects market expectations that either the bill will pass with veto-proof majorities in both chambers, or Trump will not actively oppose it. The outcome will be resolved by July 14, 2026, when Congress's legislative calendar and Trump's actions will be finalized. Key uncertainties include whether the bill reaches Trump's desk before the deadline, the margin of support in Congress, and Trump's decision to sign, veto, or allow the bill to become law without action.
- ›Congressional vote counts and whether either chamber commands the two-thirds majority required to override a presidential veto
- ›Trump's stated position on housing policy and whether he signals intent to sign or veto the legislation
- ›The bill's progress through committee and floor votes, determining whether it reaches Trump's desk before July 14, 2026
- ›Market pricing across the three contract outcomes (signed at 19¢, vetoed at 3¢, becomes law without signature at 73¢) indicating strong consensus on the no-signature scenario
- ›Historical patterns of housing legislation passing with bipartisan support versus Trump's previous veto behavior on comparable bills
What moved the line
- Jul 9Signed↑6pp19→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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