Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Becomes law without signature
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Signed
Spread
94pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$38K
liquid
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Donald Trump signs the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act into law before Jul 14, 2026?: Signed
KXROADOUTCOME-26-SIGN
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026?: Becomes law without signature
KXROADOUTCOME-26-NOSIG
Analysis
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act has a 73% probability of becoming law without Donald Trump's signature before July 14, 2026. This outcome occurs when Congress passes legislation with enough votes to override a presidential veto or when the bill becomes law through a pocket veto process. The high probability reflects market expectations that either the bill will pass with veto-proof majorities in both chambers, or Trump will not actively oppose it. The outcome will be resolved by July 14, 2026, when Congress's legislative calendar and Trump's actions will be finalized. Key uncertainties include whether the bill reaches Trump's desk before the deadline, the margin of support in Congress, and Trump's decision to sign, veto, or allow the bill to become law without action.
- ›Congressional vote counts and whether either chamber commands the two-thirds majority required to override a presidential veto
- ›Trump's stated position on housing policy and whether he signals intent to sign or veto the legislation
- ›The bill's progress through committee and floor votes, determining whether it reaches Trump's desk before July 14, 2026
- ›Market pricing across the three contract outcomes (signed at 19¢, vetoed at 3¢, becomes law without signature at 73¢) indicating strong consensus on the no-signature scenario
- ›Historical patterns of housing legislation passing with bipartisan support versus Trump's previous veto behavior on comparable bills
Recently closed in trump
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332last 4% · 10d
- Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026last 40% · 10d
- Will Trump say "Hungary / Hungarian" before Oct 1, 2026last 91% · 10d
- Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kevin Warsh in Sep 2026last 90% · 10d
- Who will Trump talk to in Aprillast 3% · 19d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In trump
Related reading
Trump Markets: Impeachment Odds at 65¢, Administration Turnover in Focus
Trump continues to be a major market driver with bets on his removal, apologies, and cabinet departures. The impeachment market (65¢) suggests traders see a real possibility of proceedings. The administration's turnover is also a focus.
Trump administration and Press Secretary speculation dominate political markets
The market for the next White House Press Secretary is the single highest-volume market in the entire dataset, with Maria Bartiromo leading at 14¢. Other Trump-focused markets on resignation and impeachment are also active, signaling intense trader interest in the political landscape.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.