Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Sep 1, 2026
Leader sits at 22% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
99 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before
Analysis
This 24% probability reflects market expectations that the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill before January 1, 2027, suggesting traders view passage as unlikely but plausible within the next six months. Reconciliation bills are rare legislative vehicles that require only 51 Senate votes rather than 60, making them strategically important for major legislation but difficult to construct due to strict budget rules and party divisions. The timing structure—with progressively lower prices for earlier deadlines (11% by September, 14% by October)—suggests traders expect delays if passage occurs at all. The primary drivers are current Senate composition, whether a reconciliation framework gains bipartisan support, and the procedural timeline required for markup and floor votes. The biggest near-term catalyst is the August recess, which would significantly compress the timeline for a September 1 resolution.
- ›Current Senate vote count and leadership commitment: 51 votes needed vs. 60-vote threshold for standard bills; recent budget resolution status indicates priority level
- ›Reconciliation scope and pay-for mechanisms: broader spending bills face higher failure risk due to PAYGO constraints and deficit concerns
- ›Legislative calendar constraints: Senate workdays available between now and January 1, 2027, with August recess reducing September deadline feasibility
- ›Party cohesion on spending priorities: defections within either party would delay or block passage
- ›External fiscal events: Congressional Budget Office scores and economic data that could shift priorities away from reconciliation in this period
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Jan 1, 2027↓20pp22→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Jan 1, 2027↑19pp2→21¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Before Jan 1, 2027↓17pp21→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Before Dec 1, 2026↓13pp14→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Dec 1, 2026↑8pp1→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (22% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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