Will MOUZ qualify for the playoffs at 2026 IEM Cologne
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 6, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Team Falcons qualify for the Grand Final at 2026 IEM Cologne
Will Team Falcons qualify for the Grand Final at 2026 IEM Cologne?: Team Falcons
KXCS2QUALIFIERS-26IEMCOLFIN-FAL
Analysis
This probability reflects MOUZ's 42% chance of advancing past the group stage to the playoffs at IEM Cologne 2026. The market assessment appears calibrated around MOUZ's recent competitive standing relative to other tier-1 European and international teams. Key factors influencing this estimate include MOUZ's roster composition and form heading into the event, the strength of competing teams in their potential group, and historical performance at IEM tournaments. The actual group draw and final rosters—typically finalized in the weeks before the event—will likely shift this probability. Resolution depends on MOUZ's performance during the group stage matches, which would occur during the tournament's initial phase.
- ›MOUZ's current ranking and recent results in international competition relative to expected participants
- ›The composition of MOUZ's potential group—tougher competition lowers qualification odds, weaker groups raise them
- ›Recent roster changes or roster stability at MOUZ compared to historical performance trends
- ›Win rate and head-to-head records against likely group opponents in recent months
- ›IEM Cologne 2026 format and group stage structure—advancement threshold and number of teams progressing to playoffs
What moved the line
- Jun 20Team Falcons↑14pp11→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Team Falcons↑3pp8→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (19% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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