Will Christopher Lancia be the Republican nominee for CT-03
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$110
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
497 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01
Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?: John Larson
KXCTPRIMARY-01D26-JLAR
Cluster 2
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?: Luke Bronin
KXCTPRIMARY-01D26-LBRO
Cluster 3
Will Ruth Fortune be the Democratic nominee for CT-01
Will Ruth Fortune be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?: Ruth Fortune
KXCTPRIMARY-01D26-RFOR
Cluster 4
Will Daniel Miressi be the Republican nominee for CT-04
Will Daniel Miressi be the Republican nominee for CT-04?: Daniel Miressi
KXCTPRIMARY-04R26-DMIR
Cluster 5
Will Michael Goldstein be the Republican nominee for CT-04
Will Michael Goldstein be the Republican nominee for CT-04?: Michael Goldstein
KXCTPRIMARY-04R26-MGOL
Cluster 6
Will Chris Shea be the Republican nominee for CT-05
Will Chris Shea be the Republican nominee for CT-05?: Chris Shea
KXCTPRIMARY-05R26-CSHE
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Christopher Lancia will secure the Republican nomination for Connecticut's 3rd Congressional District. At 46%, the market suggests the race is competitive but leans slightly toward other candidates. The nomination outcome will depend on candidate endorsements, fundraising performance, and primary voter preferences in a district that has historically favored Democrats. The main uncertainty driver is turnout composition—whether moderate or conservative Republican voters dominate the primary. The nomination will be determined by Connecticut's primary election date, which will formally resolve this question once voting results are certified.
- ›Connecticut's 3rd District primary election date and filing deadlines determine when the nomination outcome becomes certain
- ›Candidate fundraising totals and donor support levels through FEC filings provide concrete indicators of campaign viability
- ›Endorsements from state and national Republican Party figures signal organizational backing and resources behind each candidate
- ›Primary turnout patterns and voter registration changes in the district affect which candidate's base mobilizes most effectively
- ›Lancia's prior electoral history and name recognition in the district compared to other Republican candidates
What moved the line
- Jun 17John Larson↓4pp39→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Luke Bronin↑3pp56→59¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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