Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$51K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
498 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?: Mark Tedford
KXOKPRIMARY-01R26-MTED
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Mark Tedford will win the Republican primary for Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District. At 57%, this reflects a competitive race where Tedford holds a slight edge. The assessment is primarily driven by candidate funding, endorsements, and grassroots support levels among Republican primary voters. Jackson Lahmeyer's 72¢ contract price indicates meaningful competition from another viable candidate. The primary election date will definitively resolve this uncertainty and determine the actual nominee. Until then, shifts in polling data, campaign finance reports, or endorsements from state party officials could materially move the probability in either direction.
- ›Mark Tedford's contract price of 19¢ on Kalshi implies approximately 19% direct probability, conflicting with the 57% stated aggregate—indicating either data reconciliation needed or multiple contract outcomes being bundled
- ›Jackson Lahmeyer's 72¢ contract suggests the market views him as the frontrunner relative to Tedford, creating ambiguity about the actual competitive positioning
- ›Primary election date and filing deadline dates are critical catalysts that will narrow uncertainty and activate voter participation
- ›Campaign finance disclosures and quarterly FEC reports reveal actual fundraising disparities between candidates
- ›Endorsements from Oklahoma Republican Party leadership, state legislators, or national figures could significantly influence primary voter decisions
What moved the line
- Jun 17Mark Tedford↑44pp29→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Mark Tedford↓11pp40→29¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02last 29% · 3d
- Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Mainelast 83% · 3d
- Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Mainelast 57% · 3d
- Will Labour win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-electionlast 15% · 4d
- Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-electionlast 97% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Priced at 78¢ to Win House in 2026, Heavy Primary Action
Democratic control of the House is priced at 78¢ (vs 21¢ Republican), with heavy primary volume in New York congressional races. The New York-10 Democratic primary is a standout, with Brad Lander at 98¢.
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for House, Senate a Toss-up
Prediction markets signal a likely Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives (78¢) in the 2026 midterms, while the Senate race is too close to call, with Republicans slightly favored (57¢). Key state-level races in California, Texas, and Maine are providing additional trading opportunities.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.