Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Maine
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 57% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
57%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
136 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Hannah Pingree be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Maine
Will Hannah Pingree be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Maine?: Hannah Pingree
KXGOVMENOMD-26-HPIN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Troy Jackson, the Maine State Senate President, will win the Democratic nomination for Governor of Maine. At 30%, traders assess meaningful but uncertain chances he will be selected as his party's standard-bearer. The probability level suggests significant competition within the Democratic primary field and questions about Jackson's broader electability appeal beyond his legislative base. Key uncertainties include whether Jackson announces candidacy, how he performs relative to other potential Democratic candidates, and whether recent legislative or political developments enhance or diminish his standing. The Maine gubernatorial election cycle typically features nomination decisions during the spring and early summer of election years, with primary voting dates serving as major resolution points. Market participants appear to view Jackson as a credible candidate with substantial obstacles to securing the nomination.
- ›Troy Jackson's official declaration of candidacy or public positioning regarding a gubernatorial run remains uncertain
- ›Competitive dynamics within the Democratic primary field—specifically which other candidates enter and their relative name recognition and donor support
- ›Jackson's legislative accomplishments and approval ratings among Maine Democratic voters as measured in available polling data
- ›Historical patterns of Maine Democratic primary outcomes and whether insider legislative candidates have successfully secured nominations
- ›Timeline clarity on when Maine Democrats will hold nominating events or primary elections in the 2026 cycle
What moved the line
- Jun 19Hannah Pingree↑8pp55→63¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (57% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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