Will Julia Stiles win Dancing with the Stars Season 35

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents a prediction that Julia Stiles has an 11% chance of winning Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The probability reflects her relative positioning against other celebrity contestants, with Jenna Dewan currently favored at 25% and Harry Shum Jr. at 17%. Stiles' odds would shift based on early performance metrics—judge scores, audience voting patterns, and viewer engagement in the first few weeks of competition. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty is the season's live performances and cumulative voting results as episodes air. Prediction markets typically adjust probabilities week-by-week based on actual dancing performance, audience sentiment, and betting activity from traders with relevant information. Stiles' previous acting career and public familiarity may influence baseline expectations, but on-show dance improvements and consistency matter significantly for probability movement.

• ›Jenna Dewan is priced at 25%, nearly 2.5x higher than Julia Stiles at 10¢, indicating markets view Dewan as a stronger favorite based on perceived dance ability or public support
• ›Week-to-week judge scores and viewer voting results directly correlate with probability shifts; early performance episodes typically produce significant repricing across contestant contracts
• ›Harry Shum Jr. at 17% suggests contestants with prior dance training or performance experience are priced higher, which may disadvantage Stiles depending on her baseline skill level
• ›Trading volume of $7,195 over 24 hours on Stiles' contract indicates moderate market liquidity and active reassessment as new competition information emerges
• ›The spread between top candidates (Dewan 25¢ to Connor Wood 3¢) shows markets are still uncertain about Season 35 outcomes, with no contestant achieving dominant probability levels

What moved the line

• Sep 11Harry Shum Jr.↓7pp21→14¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 10Ezra Frech↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 12Jenna Dewan↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 12Harry Shum Jr.↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 10Connor Wood↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds