Winner-take-all answer·3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·refreshed just now·Closes Mar 1, 2027 · 206d

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Nov 1, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 27% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

27%

Before Jan 1, 2027

0¢runner-up 26¢leader 27¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

26¢

Before Mar 1, 2027

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

thin orderbook

Closes

Mar 1, 2027

206 days

Venue

Kalshi

3 bound

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 202727¢$0 Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?: Before Mar 1, 202726¢$0 Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 20263¢$0

30-day trend

Before Jan 1, 202725¢Before Mar 1, 202726¢Before Nov 1, 20263¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 8d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before

3 contracts$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026

KXDEBTLIMITINCREASE-26JUL-26NOV01

3¢−3pp$0K→

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Mar 1, 2027?: Before Mar 1, 2027

KXDEBTLIMITINCREASE-26JUL-27MAR01

26¢±0$0K→

Will legislation that increases the statutory limit on the public debt become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027

KXDEBTLIMITINCREASE-26JUL-27JAN01

27¢−1pp$0K→

Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation raising the federal debt ceiling before November 1, 2026—roughly three months from now. The current 20% probability reflects a compressed timeline and historical patterns where debt limit increases typically occur during fiscal emergencies or near the end of a fiscal year. Market participants are pricing in higher odds for passage by March 2027, suggesting most expect resolution in the later months of 2026 or early 2027 rather than immediately. Key drivers of movement would be the Treasury's cash depletion projections and whether lawmakers reach a compromise before August recess or during the September-October legislative calendar. The primary uncertainty catalyst is Treasury's official estimate of when extraordinary measures will be exhausted, usually announced quarterly, which would force legislative action or market stress.

›Treasury cash depletion timeline: extraordinary measures typically last 4-6 months before forced action
›Congressional calendar and recess schedule: August recess followed by September-November legislative session constrains voting windows
›Party control and unified government status: determines negotiating dynamics and likelihood of clean versus conditional debt ceiling bills
›Recent precedent: debt ceiling increases in 2023 and earlier cycles occurred under time pressure, not in advance
›Market pricing curve shows declining probability with tighter deadlines (8% by Nov 1 vs. 20% by Mar 1), indicating expectation of extended timeline

What moved the line

Aug 2Before Jan 1, 2027↑10pp16→26¢ · Kalshi
Aug 2Before Nov 1, 2026↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
Aug 2Before Mar 1, 2027↑3pp20→23¢ · Kalshi
Aug 3Before Mar 1, 2027↑3pp23→26¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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