Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above 0% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects a 97% probability that Walt Disney's domestic parks attendance will grow year-over-year in fiscal 2026, with most traders clustering around modest positive growth (0-1%) rather than stronger gains. The high confidence rests partly on Disney's historical attendance recovery post-pandemic, but the narrow positive range suggests traders expect only marginal expansion rather than robust volume increases. Key uncertainties include consumer spending patterns, theme park pricing strategy, and competitive pressures from other entertainment venues. Disney will officially report fiscal 2026 results in November 2026, providing the definitive attendance figures that resolve this contract. Until then, quarterly earnings reports and management commentary on domestic park traffic will offer incremental signals about whether year-over-year attendance trends remain positive.

• ›Disney's actual reported fiscal 2026 domestic park attendance growth rate must exceed 0% year-over-year to resolve "Above 0%" contracts; even flat attendance (0.0%) would fail this threshold
• ›The probability structure shows traders view 1% growth as the most likely outcome (25¢ on 'Above 1%'), suggesting consensus expects modest rather than strong attendance expansion
• ›Pricing drops sharply for higher thresholds (15¢ for Above 2%, 5¢ for Above 3%), indicating markets assign low probability to robust growth despite pandemic recovery trends
• ›Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings calls will provide interim attendance data that could shift probabilities before the final fiscal 2026 tally in November 2026
• ›Disney's pricing decisions, operational capacity, and macroeconomic consumer spending trends between now and year-end will materially influence whether domestic park attendance reaches even modest positive growth

What moved the line

• Aug 2Above 2%↓6pp26→20¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 2Above -3%↓6pp92→86¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 2Above 0%↓5pp59→54¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 4Above -3%↓5pp90→85¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 30Above 0%↓4pp63→59¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds