Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.13 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 66% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.08
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Above $0.09
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
134 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.08 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.08
KXDOGEMAXY-DOGE-26DEC31-008
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.12 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.12
KXDOGEMAXY-DOGE-26DEC31-012
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.11 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.11
KXDOGEMAXY-DOGE-26DEC31-011
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.10 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.10
KXDOGEMAXY-DOGE-26DEC31-010
Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.09 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.09
KXDOGEMAXY-DOGE-26DEC31-009
Analysis
This market is pricing a 39% probability that Dogecoin's trimmed mean price will exceed $0.13 by year-end 2026. The contract sits between the more heavily traded $0.08 threshold (68% implied) and the $0.14 threshold (26% implied), reflecting uncertainty about DOGE's trajectory in the final five months of the year. Broader crypto market volatility, Bitcoin's performance, and retail sentiment around meme assets are primary drivers of these probabilities. The wide spacing between contract prices ($0.08 to $0.15) suggests meaningful disagreement about whether DOGE will consolidate below $0.12 or push toward higher levels. Resolution depends on actual price data on December 31, 2026, with no intermediate catalyst—only cumulative market conditions over the remaining 161 days will determine the outcome.
- ›DOGE currently trades substantially below the $0.13 threshold based on recent spot prices, requiring significant appreciation within five months
- ›The $0.08 contract commands 68% implied probability while $0.13 is at 39%, indicating markets expect modest gains but not sharp rallies
- ›Bitcoin correlation and altcoin season dynamics historically drive DOGE performance; a crypto downturn would pressure achievement of higher price targets
- ›The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme prices, making the outcome less vulnerable to flash crashes or manipulation on any single exchange
- ›24-hour trading volume across these contracts ($82–$200) is moderate, suggesting these prices reflect genuine disagreement rather than thin liquidity artifacts
What moved the line
- Aug 15Above $0.08↑15pp51→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 12Above $0.10↓11pp14→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Above $0.08↓9pp60→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above $0.10↓5pp7→2¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above $0.11↓5pp7→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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